Series Preview: Mets Get Two Key Arms Back Against Royals

The vibe surrounding the New York Mets (53-41) would make it seem as if their season is falling apart. Being 12 games above .500 on July 11, just days before the All-Star break, is pretty solid in my mind. That being said, the Mets are 8-15 since June 15. That is tied for the worst mark in baseball over that stretch. The last month or so has shown us that the Mets may need significant reinforcements at the deadline. But for now, additions will be in-house, and two important ones at that will be available this weekend with Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea.

Their opponent, the Kansas City Royals (46-48), are well off the pace in the American League Central. They’re 13 games back of the Detroit Tigers, who have played outstanding baseball all season. Scoring runs has been a problem for the Royals. Their 3.41 runs per game is the second-worst mark in baseball, only ahead of the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Mets will look to keep Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez quiet this weekend.

Let’s take a look at some notes ahead of the three pitching matchups.

PITCHING MATCHUPS

• Friday: Kodai Senga (7-3, 1.47 ERA) vs. Michael Wacha (4-9, 3.83 ERA): For the first time since June 12, Senga will be on the mound for the Mets. That should provide a massive boost. Before he got hurt last month, Senga was in the conversation for the National League Cy Young Award, and deservedly so. He made one rehab start for Double-A Binghamton last Saturday, allowing three earned runs in 3 2/3 innings. Senga is 2-2 with a 2.00 ERA in six road starts. Wacha has been solid for the Royals over the last year and a half, but he is in the midst of a pretty rough stretch. He is 1-5 with a 5.85 ERA since the start of June. The former Met has allowed four runs or more in three of his last five starts. Wacha is 5-4 with a 3.76 ERA in nine career outings against New York.
• Saturday: Frankie Montas (1-1, 6.14 ERA) vs. Michael Lorenzen (5-8, 4.61 ERA): Montas has had a bumpy start to his time with the Mets. After a brutal performance against the Pirates on June 29, he was a bit better his next time out. He went 5 2/3 innings, allowing four runs on five hits vs. the New York Yankees last Saturday. The home run ball has hurt Montas, though, as he’s given up four in his last two starts. Montas is 3-2 with a 3.31 ERA in seven career appearances (five starts) against the Royals. Lorenzen re-signed in Kansas City after a strong second half with the team in 2024, helping the Royals advance to the ALDS. He is coming off his best start of the season, throwing seven shutout innings against the Arizona Diamondbacks last Sunday.
• Sunday: TBD vs. Noah Cameron (3-4, 2.56 ERA): It has been all but confirmed that both Clay Holmes and Manaea will pitch in the series finale. The main question is who will be the starter and who will come out of the bullpen. Manaea’s return is going to be the big story, though. Last season, he proved to be the Mets’ most important starter, especially after the All-Star break. Manaea made six appearances (five starts) on his rehab assignments, pitching to a 6.27 ERA in 18 2/3 innings. In addition to Seth Lugo, Cameron has shined in the Royals’ rotation. The rookie left-hander has been superb since making his debuting on April 30. He’s turned in six quality starts, including five to begin his career. Cameron is 2-3 with a 3.93 ERA in six home starts.

WHAT’S THE STORY?

There are plenty of ways to answer this question right now. My eyes will be on Mark Vientos this weekend. Starling Marte is on the injured list, and it appears Jesse Winker will be joining him after injuring his back on Thursday. In the short-term, that opens up an opportunity for someone to grab a significant role as the team’s designated hitter. Vientos needs to take advantage.

Ronny Mauricio has started to get more comfortable, and Brett Baty‘s bat has come back to life while providing strong defense at both second and third base. All of a sudden, a clear role for Vientos is not there, at least for now. After a breakout season in 2024, this is not what anyone could have expected. Since returning from the injured list on June 27, Vientos is slashing .118/.118/.147 with just one extra base hit.

The Mets may go big-fish hunting at the trade deadline. If they do, their group of young position players will draw interest. For years, it seemed like Baty would be the one to go. Now, could Vientos be moved in a deal for a quality arm? Who knows. Right now, Vientos needs to put together good at bats, and that starts in Kansas City this weekend.

PREDICTION 

The Royals are back within striking distance of a Wild Card spot after winning seven of their first nine games in July. Right now, they are playing better baseball than the Mets. I think it will be a tight series, especially with the inconsistencies of both lineups. With the duo of Senga and Manaea returning, I give the slight edge to the Mets. They will end the first half by taking two of three in Kansas City.

The post Series Preview: Mets Get Two Key Arms Back Against Royals appeared first on Metsmerized Online.