A prayer and national security

‘MAY you have seven sons’ was a familiar prayer in Punjab in early 20th-century British India, when the Empire gave stipends to families with many male children. They were potential recruits for the colonial armies. Though the British have long departed, echoes of this sentiment seem to have lingered through the century.

We are today a population of 241.5 million and a promise for more, with a growth rate of 2.55 per cent annually. Promising to some as a demographic dividend waiting to be harnessed, it also presents significant challenges. The youth bulge is striking; 26 per cent of the population is between 15 and 29, and over half (53.8pc) falls within the working-age group (15-59). The Economic Survey, 2025, interestingly highlights this demographic dynamic as a “unique opportunity”.

Also highlighted by the Survey are several initiatives by the government aimed at unlocking this potential. The National Vocational & Technical Training Commission, especially under the Prime Minister’s Youth Skill Development Programme, has trained tens of thousands of young people in emerging fields. Under the PMYSDP, a total of 72,362 have been trained especially in IT. Looking ahead, NAVTTC aims to train 100,000 youth in high-tech IT skills, another 100,000 in traditional trades, and 150,000 in industrial skills over the next three years. All these efforts combined aim to elevate our skilled workforce to close to half a million — 473,291, to be exact.

This number falls significantly short of the unemployment challenge. Youth unemployment, according to the 2023 Population and Housing Census, remains alarmingly high at 29pc among those aged 15-24. An additional 16m young people are neither employed nor in education — deemed ‘idle youth’ — peaking at 22.7m in 2023. Unemployment is especially severe in Balochistan and KP and in the rural areas.

With inadequate jobs in the market, poverty is certain to increase. A recent World Bank report raises serious concerns. Due to an upward revision of the poverty threshold, the poverty rate in Pakistan has jumped from 39.8pc to 44.7pc at a per-day income of $4.20. According to government estimates, using official data from the 2018-19 Household Income and Expenditure Survey, the poverty rate is 21.9pc. Recent research from the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics suggests it could be as high as 39.5pc, with 70pc of people in Balochistan, 48pc in KP, 45pc percent in Sindh, and 30pc in Punjab suffering from poverty. Rural areas have higher poverty rates than urban areas.

Regardless of which figures we want to believe in, economic security is at risk.

We seem to know what to do. But what appears to be missing is political will.

Poverty’s toll is also visible in health metrics. Approximately 40pc of children under five are stunted — the highest in South Asia. Stunting, caused mainly by malnutrition, is known to stifle cognitive and physical development. Stunted children will become adults with lower levels of intelligence and with decreased capacity to earn, hampering productivity and long-term economic growth at the national level. We are thus creating a vicious cycle of economic deprivation, unemployment and underdevelopment.

The interconnection between economic deprivation and social unrest is complex. Scholars debate whether poverty directly fuels terrorism. Egyptian analyst Dr Hany Ali Nasira reviewed poverty rates of the countries which ranked the first six on the Global Terrorism Index for the years 2020 to 2023 and found a strong correlation between poverty and terrorism. He contends that, although there are other causes giving rise to terrorism — such as crises, political instability and sectarian disagreements, external support to terrorist groups and governance — terrorist groups often exploit economic grievances. They promise employment or financial gains, turning poverty into a fertile ground for recruitment.

Research from Punjab University also demonstrates that terrorism inflames uncertainty, deterring investments, foreign and domestic, deepening unemployment and poverty, and further fuelling a cycle of violence and underdevelopment. The deadly terrorist attacks in Balochistan and KP exemplify these dynamics, threatening national security. The findings suggest that terrorism both contributes to and is exacerbated by poverty, creating a self-reinforcing cycle that hinders economic development.

With our economic growth rate unable to keep pace with our increasing population, we need to address the challenge our ‘idle youth’ may pose to national security. The 2022-2026 National Security Policy, too, explicitly recognises population growth as a destabilising factor, particularly when intertwined with poverty, ethnic tensions and uneven development.

Almost all other large Muslim nations — Bangladesh, Iran, Turkey, Malaysia, Indonesia — have successfully implemented population reforms decades ago. It has helped them in maintaining their human development goals. While Pakistan ranks 168 out of 193 countries on the Human Development Index 2025, Bangladesh is at 130, Iran at 75 and Indonesia at 113, to mention a few. Yet, in Pakistan, the debate on population continues. An urgent sense of crisis remains elusive. Whether we adopt ‘family health’ or ‘tawazzun’ — balanced coexistence between population and available resource as guiding principles — we must act decisively.

Four years ago, an editorial in Dawn on July 11 (World Population Day) suggested a ‘population emergency’. More conferences were held, and more commitments made by government officials, on World Population Day this year. We seem to know what to do, also detailed in the paper published last November by the Population Council and UNFPA, titled Pakistan@2050: Demographic Change, Future Projections, and Development Opportunities.

What seems to be missing is the political will to ‘seize the moment’ advocated by Dr Zeba Sathar, country director of the Population Council in Dawn on the important ‘Day’ — another day remembered yet neglected.

Let us seize the moment lest the prayer in Punjab trails us into the next century. Let us seize the moment lest our own people become a challenge for our national security.

The writer is a retired ambassador of Pakistan.

Published in Dawn, July 28th, 2025