Phillies salvage split in D.C. but regular-season results still feel secondary to Wheeler news
One of the most difficult, strange and emotional weekends of the Phillies’ season ended with an 11-9 win in a slog of a game Sunday at Nationals Park that epitomized the dog days of August.
The Phils hung on to salvage a split in the final series of a 6-4 road trip, their longest all year, but regular-season wins and losses felt almost immaterial over the final 24 hours of it once the organization revealed that ace Zack Wheeler is dealing with a blood clot near his right shoulder.
It’s a scary situation for Wheeler and his family, and it’s obviously as crushing a blow as could be delivered to the 2025 Phillies. His timeline to return is unclear and given the time of year, the playoffs could be in doubt, as well.
Losing any of Wheeler, Bryce Harper or Kyle Schwarber changes the complexion of the Phillies. In the immediate future, it affects them with three left-handers starting consecutively in the upcoming Mariners series — Ranger Suárez, Cristopher Sánchez and Jesús Luzardo. That’s not ideal and the Phillies will almost certainly split them up once an off-day allows for it. It won’t over the next two cycles unless they call up Andrew Painter and go to a six-man rotation.
Come October, if the Phillies are without Wheeler, they’ll be without the primary advantage they’ve carried into every playoff series since 2022 — having the best big-game starting pitcher in baseball. It would likely slot Sánchez into Game 1. It’s too early to say what the rest of the playoff rotation would look like, but the Phillies might have to ask themselves at that point whether it makes more sense to start a lefty three games in a row if Sánchez, Suárez and Luzardo are the three best options, or to break them up with an Aaron Nola or Taijuan Walker.
Nola returned Sunday from a three-month stint on the injured list that began with an ankle sprain and continued with a rib fracture. His first two innings were solid. His third was ugly as he gave back all of a six-run lead. The short start mattered when the Nationals nearly came back in the ninth against a fourth Phillies reliever, Max Lazar. Nola’s ERA is 6.92 through 10 starts and he will need a series of strong ones to inspire confidence moving into October. There was likely some rust Sunday but he did not pitch well early in the season either.
Starting pitching health had been perhaps the most important part of the Phillies’ success dating back to 2022, one that often goes overlooked and is so much more apparent when it’s missing. Nola hadn’t missed a start to an injury in almost a decade. Wheeler had been held out of five total in four years. Wheeler maintained his high-90s velocity deep into three straight postseasons. Along the way, Suárez emerged as a true top-of-the-rotation workhorse as well and the Phillies would be in a world of trouble without him.
The Phillies return home 71-53 with 38 games and 12 series left. They’ll begin the week leading the Mets by either five or six games in the NL East. It should be a sufficient cushion even if Wheeler misses ample time but the division will come down to how the Phillies perform in the seven remaining head-to-heads — August 25-27 in New York and September 8-11 in Philly. It’s been two months since the teams met.
There is still enough on this roster to advance far into the playoffs. Schwarber has shown for five months now that he can essentially win you a series with his bat. Harper has the ability to do the same. (Opposing managers might not allow them to in October.) If Trea Turner or Alec Bohm is hot, it’s a fearsome top-four.
Turner said Sunday when asked on the Roku broadcast by Tom McCarthy what he likes most about the Phillies moving into September that it’s the numerous and tight ways they’ve won games. They’ll need to find even more without their ace.