Kurtenbach: The playoffs start early with 49ers – Bears. My three predictions

The 49ers’ Sunday night matchup with the Chicago Bears isn’t just a game. It’s a dress rehearsal.

For the last month, the 49ers have been feasting on the NFL’s middle class (at best), stacking five straight wins like poker chips. But beating the Titans or the Colts is like winning a sparring match. Nice for the record, sure, but it doesn’t tell you if you can take a punch.

Sunday night against the also 11-4 Chicago Bears? Now that’s a worthy adversary — the first of two playoff games the 49ers will play before the playoffs officially start.

A win here does more than secure a sixth-straight victory; it sets the table for a blockbuster Week 18 showdown against the Seattle Seahawks for the NFC West crown and the conference’s No. 1 seed.

But to get to that winner-take-all finale, they first have to survive a Chicago team that has found its swagger.

So much swagger. Like, a curious amount of swagger for a team whose marquee win required an onside kick recovery to beat a backup quarterback.

Alas, they have every opportunity to back it up on Sunday.

Can the Niners’ beleaguered defense hold against one of the league’s best tacticians with a headset and talents at quarterback?

Can Brock Purdy and Kyle Shanahan keep the Niners’ offense humming if the irreplaceable George Kittle (didn’t practice all week, officially designated as questionable with an ankle injury) cannot play?

This game has all the makings of a shootout that should make Purdy and Williams (Iowa State and Oklahoma) feel like they’re back in college.

That’s precisely the kind of test this 49ers team needs right now.

Here are three predictions for Sunday night:

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The 49ers Don’t Just Win, They Blow the Doors Off: I started the week thinking this might be a high-scoring, back-and-forth type of game, but I’m changing my tune.

I’m done predicting close games for the 49ers. They will play nothing but blowouts — one way or another, the rest of the year.

I think this way is a win.

The 49ers have flaws on top of flaws, but they are a more buttoned-up, lethal offense right now, while the Bears are high on their own supply after stealing a miracle win last week.

I trust Kyle Shanahan and Brock Purdy infinitely more than I trust the erratic brilliance of Caleb Williams or the too-cute-by-half Ben Johnson.

The 49ers are going to turn this into a track meet, and the Bears, a markedly worse third-down team than the Niners, won’t be able to keep pace.

Upton Stout Is the Key: The rookie nickelback is the X-factor in this game. The Bears’ offense lives and dies by tight splits, bunch formations, and confusion — specifically targeting the slot. They’ll destroy you in the run game if you go with base, three-linebacker formations.

If Stout can handle the communication and be a positive factor in the run game (as he was against the Colts), the Bears’ offense can stall. If Stout struggles, the 49ers get gashed.

I’m betting the ascending rookie holds his own.

Caleb Williams Gets Tricked into Mistakes: Williams is undeniably talented, but he plays with questionable feel for the rhythm of the NFL game.

He extends plays unnecessarily and is prone to being baited. The 49ers don’t need to do anything exotic on defense; they just need to be disciplined.

My prediction is that Williams gets bored taking what’s there, tries to play hero ball against a zone coverage he misreads, and gifts the 49ers the turnovers that turn this game into the blowout I’m expecting.

Final Score: 44 – 29 49ers.