6 reasons why bitcoin will outperform stocks and gold in 2026, research firm says

• Bitcoin fell 6% in 2025, but research firm K33 predicts a strong rebound in 2026.
• The firm cites Fed rate cuts, Trump administration support, and new crypto legislation as key drivers.
• US bitcoin reserves, potential 401(k) access, and the CLARITY Act could also boost bitcoin demand.

There's no denying that, after two years of returns exceeding 100%, bitcoin let investors down this year.

The largest cryptocurrency is on track to end 2025 in a bear market and down 6% from levels at the start of the year. That's the opposite of what many may have expected from bitcoin, given the burst of excitement that took over after Donald Trump, the "crypto president," kicked off his second term in January.

But despite a losing year, the crypto looks on track for a better 2026, thanks to a bundle of catalysts that should take bitcoin to new records, according to the crypto brokerage and research firm K33.

In a recent report to clients, the firm said it believed much of bitcoin's underperformance in 2025 was attributable to "isolated bubbles" and "temporary leverage imbalances" in the crypto market.

"When prices and fundamentals move in opposite directions, opportunities arise. With this in mind, we enter 2026 with a constructively bullish view," the firm wrote. "Bitcoin will outperform equity indices and gold in 2026," they added.

Here are the six catalysts K33 thinks will take bitcoin higher:

1. Bitcoin's price is attractive

Bitcoin is now trading around "pre-Trump levels," meaning it looks attractive from a valuation standpoint, the firm said.

Bitcoin, which slipped into a technical bear market in November, is down 44% from its peak of around $126,000. It's down around 24% lower from $109,000, the level bitcoin broke when on the day of Trump's inauguration.

"K33 view BTC as fundamentally underpriced relative to other asset classes," researchers wrote.

2. Fed rate cuts are coming

The Fed is expected to continue cutting interest rates in 2026, another factor that should boost investor appetite for risk assets, including crypto.

Investors are largely expecting the Fed to hold rates where they are at their January policy meeting. But markets are pricing in a 74% probability the central bank will cut rates two times or more by the end of next year, according to the latest CME FedWatch reading.

"This monetary policy environment contrasts sharply with those of 2018 and 2022, reducing the likelihood of a direct repetition of past market patterns," K33 said, referring to previous bear markets for bitcoin.

3. The Trump administration will back crypto

Trump likely has bitcoin's back — and will keep pushing to further integrate crypto into the financial sphere, the firm speculated.

Trump has long positioned himself as a crypto-friendly president. So far in his second term, he's signed a barrage of executive orders that have boosted sentiment in crypto markets, plugged in crypto-friendly leaders into his administration, and even launched his own meme coin.

"Bitcoin and crypto has the Administration's backing," K33 said. "Bitcoin prices far from reflect this shift, and we believe 2026 presents a compelling setup for bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies amid escalating integration with traditional finance."

4. The US's strategic bitcoin reserve is a bullish factor

There's been little publicly available information about the US strategic bitcoin reserve. But the government is likely holding onto around 233,736 bitcoins, or around $20 billion worth of the crypto, per K33's latest estimates.

"Even if the US government never buys BTC, the hold-strategy is net good for the market. In the past, seized coins were viewed as inevitable sell-side pressure; now they're effectively taken off the market for the US to hold," the firm said.

5. 401(k) accounts could get access to crypto funds soon

Trump signed an executive order in August asking regulators to review rules around 401(k) accounts, potentially making it easier for retirement accounts to hold alternative assets, including crypto.

If just 1% of 401(k) balances were allocated to bitcoin, that would be equivalent to around $87 billion worth of bitcoin being held, K33 estimated.

"Combined with supportive financial advisor guidance from Morgan Stanley and Bank of America, this establishes a strong foundation for meaningful BTC absorption in 2026 and, in our view, remains a significantly underappreciated market driver."

6. The CLARITY Act is coming

The CLARITY Act, the landmark crypto bill that would set a framework for how banks and crypto firms could use and sell digital assets, was passed by the House of Representatives this summer. The Senate is expected to vote on the bill sometime in the first quarter of next year, something that could potentially increase crypto's presence in the traditional finance world, K33 suggested. That's another positive for bitcoin prices.

"The banks have arrived, and their presence will escalate," K33 researchers wrote wrote.