4 Andreessen Horowitz partners share their 2026 AI predictions

• Partners a16z said ChatGPT is winning the consumer AI race, but things can change "very quickly."
• They predict that image and video capabilities and a push into apps could be crucial in 2026.
• Startups can succeed even among the big players, but need to be careful about their focus, one partner said.

Another year, another slate of potential AI breakthroughs.

Four partners at the venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz debated what 2026 might bring to the AI world on an episode of the company's podcast that aired December 29, 2025. They focused on some of the biggest consumer LLMs. including ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude, Cursor, Perplexity, and Grok.

Here's what they think this year might bring to the AI race.

Video and images could give Gemini an edge

Gemini 3's video and image models might give it a significant leg up over ChatGPT, Justine Moore, an investment partner, said, since there's "always nearly infinite demand" for those capabilities among both professional and everyday users.

"So many new viral trends are created around new capabilities of the best-in-class image and video models," she said.

That can drive users to new products, Moore added. If Gemini keeps up the momentum, it could overcome the challenge of ChatGPT's name recognition.

Multimodality is key

Images and videos are one thing, but multimodality — the ability for AI models to process text, images, and audio at once — might be the real differentiator in 2026. Pretty much "everything" is becoming multimodal, Moore said.

"What happens when you can put a video in and get images out that are related to or the next iteration of the video? Or you can put a video in and a text prompt about what you want to edit, and get the edited video out?" she said.

The changes could also have a big impact on the design world, which often includes combining text and images in creative ways.

A push into apps

Whether ChatGPT's internal version of the app store is successful could be its "defining question for the next year," Olivia Moore, one of the partners, said. At launch, app partners included Spotify and Zillow, among others.

The model's software development kit, which lets developers build their own apps for ChatGPT, could be crucial for both consumer and enterprise use, Anish Acharya, another partner, said. Combined, these features will allow ChatGPT to work more like an app store.

Startups will need to be creative

If startups want to succeed, they might want to steer clear of text-in, text-out models, since existing models are so dominant.

"You have to be creative around, what is the angle that you can go steal people away from?" said Bryan Kim, a partner.

'Winner takes all'

Olivia Moore said there are early signs that the world of LLM assistants might be trending toward "winner take all, or at least winner take most."

When it comes to the sheer number of users, ChatGPT has a sizable lead over its competitors, with between 800 and 900 million weekly active users. Moore said that Google's Gemini reached around 35% of that scale on the web and around 40% on mobile devices. The other models come in at between 8 and 10%, she said.

Moore also said later in the episode that ChatGPT Enterprise, which businesses can use, could spur growth. Weekly messages in ChatGPT Enterprise increased by around eightfold in 2025, OpenAI said.

"If we're entering a world now where people have to use ChatGPT for their company or as part of their work, that could really translate into consumer usage," she said.

Yet if the past few months are any indication, Moore said "things are changing very quickly," and Gemini is growing desktop users at a faster rate than ChatGPT. Other LLMs, like Claude, are offering capabilities that cater to specialized consumers, like the uber-technical.