Tesla stock price is on the rise today despite gloomy expectations for vehicle deliveries: This could be why

Shares of Tesla Inc. are enjoying a premarket upswing on Friday as they head into their first trading day of 2026.

The rising stock price (Nasdaq: TSLA) comes despite low expectations for the EV maker’s fourth-quarter 2025 deliveries, which are expected to show a significant decline when compared to the previous quarter.

Here’s what you need to know:

Tesla stock is starting 2026 on a high note

In premarket trading on Friday, shares of Tesla were up around 2% as of this writing. The stock has been on an upswing for the last several months since CEO Elon Musk stepped back from his controversial job-slashing activities at the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) earlier in 2025.

Those activities were widely seen to have done damage to the Tesla brand, especially among progressive-minded customers.

But Tesla stock has risen more than 46% since last summer, a sign that investors are once again excited about the company’s push into AI and automation.

Q4 vehicle deliveries are expected to dip

Tesla is expected to soon share its most recent figures for vehicle deliveries, and they’re not likely to be pretty. The company’s recently updated consensus data shows 422,850 total vehicles, down roughly 15% compared to the previous quarter.

That’s even lower than a FactSet consensus of around 440,000 vehicles cited by Barron’s.

If the deliveries data is so bad, why is Tesla stock still rising?

There could be a few reasons for that. For one thing, the deliveries were already expected to decline from the previous quarter, when consumers rushed to buy electric vehicles before the expiration of tax credits in September.

So while Tesla’s consensus estimate is even lower than some had predicted, the dip in deliveries was not a surprise. At the same time, some investors seem to be more interested in looking forward than backward.

Excitement around robotaxis may trump traditional fundamentals

Tesla’s share price moves have always reflected a mix of traditional metrics like sales and revenue trends along with a belief in the company’s forward-looking ambitions. Today’s share price increase could indicate that investors are more excited about what the company has in store for 2026 in terms of AI, automation, and robotaxis.

As reported by Yahoo Finance, analyst Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities recently named Tesla as one of the top AI stocks for 2026. So while there is plenty of skepticism around whether Musk will ever deliver on his promises for self-driving vehicles, he and Tesla still have their share of believers.

Tech and AI stocks are generally up on Friday

Tesla’s premarket stock price rise on Friday may also simply be a reflection of broader investor optimism as we head into the first trading day of 2026.

A number of Big Tech and AI-adjacent stocks are enjoying a mild bump on Friday morning, including Nvidia Corp, Meta Platforms, Apple and others.

Whether or not it will last is anyone’s guess. But let’s not forget we still have 365 days to go.