Trump bets on intimidation to force Venezuelan leaders into line
After removing President Nicolas Maduro from power, the Trump administration is gambling that it can intimidate the Venezuelan leader’s inner circle into toeing the U.S. line with threats of further military action that could put them at risk of a similar fate, according to sources familiar with the matter.
President Donald Trump’s advisers also believe they may be able to work behind the scenes with Interim President Delcy Rodriguez who, despite her public defiance, is seen as a technocrat who might be amenable to working with the U.S. on a political transition and key oil-related issues, according to three people briefed on the U.S. strategy.
The still-vague plan, however, faces numerous complicating factors, including how much further Trump is prepared to go militarily, raising questions about his ability to bend the post-Maduro Venezuelan government to his will.
The potential sweeteners for Maduro’s aides would be offers of amnesty or safe exile of the sort that Maduro rejected in his final days before his capture by U.S. special forces on Saturday, according to one source. He is now locked away in a New York detention center awaiting a Monday court appearance on drug charges.
Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino and Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello, two powerful members of Maduro’s inner circle who both have multimillion-dollar U.S. bounties on their heads, remain potential spoilers in any such arrangement with the U.S., given their authority over the country’s military and intelligence apparatus.
The White House declined to provide answers to Reuters’ questions, referring instead to comments by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio that were broadcast on Sunday.
Trump’s effort could also be undercut if Democrats can convince enough of the president’s fellow Republicans to restrict funding for any further Venezuela military operation, which would send a message to Venezuela that Trump’s hand could be weakened.
The U.S. president’s vow on Saturday to “run” post-Maduro Venezuela appears for now to be more an aspiration to exert outside control – or at least heavy influence – over the OPEC nation without deploying U.S. ground forces, which would have little public support at home.
But U.S. officials believe they can still gain cooperation from Venezuelan authorities by maintaining a massive military buildup off the country’s coast and keeping alive the threat of further air strikes, the targeting of Maduro loyalists and, as a last resort, sending in a contingent of U.S. troops.
“This is the sword that Trump has hanging over them,” the source told Reuters.
Venezuela’s remaining leaders could feel especially vulnerable because of the damage inflicted by U.S. air strikes on the country’s air defense systems, according to a second source familiar with the matter.
Another major source of leverage, hammered home by Rubio on Sunday television news programs, is to keep in place a “quarantine” on Venezuelan oil shipments, the government’s main financial lifeline.
Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas, the Republican chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, was explicit about the threat to the Venezuelan government, telling CNN: “If they don’t want to follow in Maduro’s footsteps, they need to start meeting our demands.” (Reuters)
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