Iran Could Be Facing A Revolutionary Moment – Here's Why That Matters

Nationwide protests have rocked Iran over the last two weeks as the general public push back against the authoritarian regime.

This is the largest challenge the Iranian state has faced for years. Authorities have even cut off internet access in a bid to control the demonstrations by isolating the country altogether.

Iran’s global influence, as well as its alliance with both Russia and China, mean that what happens there could have a knock-on effect for countries around the world.

Here’s what you need to know.

What Is Happening In Iran?

The current pushback began to build among Tehran’s shopkeepers, as Iranians grew frustrated over sky-high inflation.

The prices of basic goods like cooking oil and chicken soared overnight, while some products became completely unavailable.

The Iranian central bank then chose to stop some importers from accessing cheaper US dollars, compared to the rest of the market.

Some shops closed altogether, which was the tipping point. Protests began to spread across more than 100 cities, as demonstrators want an opening up of the economy.

There’s additional fury from young people, particularly women, too, over the state repression, poverty and ethnic division.

Crowds have also been chanting “death to Khamenei”, referring to Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei.

There’s some frustration towards President Masoud Pazeshkian, too. He was elected in 2024, promised to champion the working class – the very people who are now struggling.

Iran’s economy faces additional challenges because of its external sanctions from the UN, while the growing risk of conflict with Israel and the US does not help.

At least 45 protesters, including eight children, have been killed, according to Norway-based Iran Human Rights NGO, while hundreds more may been injured.

More than 2,000 people have been arrested, and the use of the death penalty has been increased.

Has This Happened Before? 

Iran has been ruled by the Islamic Republic regime since 1979, when the Iranian monarchy – allied to the west – was overthrown.

Shia muslim clerics then took over in a bid to unite the country and installed a spiritual authority at the top of government.

The public have pushed back against the state on several occasions over the years, only to be met with more oppression and violence.

The last major movement was in 2022, and called ‘Woman, Life, Freedom’, triggered by the death of a 22-year-old woman, Mahsa Amini, while she was in the custody of religious police.

This time, shopkeepers, also known as the bazaars, are playing a central role in the protests – and they have a strong alliance with the Iranian clergy.

They helped the Revolution of 1979 by giving the opposition financial backing and are often seen as being very loyal to the regime – meaning their opposition this time could make all the difference.

The authorities have notable called those wanting regime change “rioters” and foreign-backed “mercenaries”, while sidestepping the economic protesters.

What Is Trump Threatening To Do?

The US president Donald Trump is threatening to take action against Iran.

He said on Thursday: “I have let them know that if they start killing people, which they tend to do during their riots … we’re going to hit them very hard.”

He also warned on Friday that Iranian authorities “better not start shooting, because we’ll start shooting too”, though he has made it clear America will not put “boots on the ground”.

The US worked with Israel to attack Iran for the first time just six months ago, hitting its nuclear programme. Trump hinted at the possibility of new attacks after he met with Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu last week.

Khamenei responded by telling Trump to “focus on the problems of his own country.”

He said: “There are some agitators who want to please the American president by destroying public property. A united Iranian people will defeat all enemies

“The Islamic Republic will not back down in the face of those who are looking to destroy us.”

Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of the late shah, has also put himself forward as an appropriate alternative to the regime and expressed his support for the protests, although it’s unclear how much support there would be for a return to monarchy.

What Impact Will This Have On The Rest Of The World?

Iran is a country with incredible influence within the Middle East. Its proxies include militant organisations like Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthis in Yemen and several Iraqi groups.

It also has an axis of power through its alliances with Russia and China.

If Iran were to fall, it would knock both world powers by reducing their international strength, and change the Middle East significantly.

Iran has already seen its strength declined in the region recently, amid the elimination of various proscribed terrorist groups since Hamas’s October 7 attack in 2023 triggered a wider conflict.

How Has The UK Responded?

The UK government has said “we urge Iran to protect fundamental freedoms”.

Transport secretary Heidi Alexander told Times Radio: “Well I’m not going to provide a running commentary on the foreign policy or military plans of another country. As a government we’re obviously monitoring developments in Iran very closely. We are concerned by the reports of violence against protesters there who are obviously exercising their legitimate right to peaceful protest.

“And as a government we would be urging the authorities in Iran to do three things.

“Firstly, protect the lives of their citizens. Secondly, protect the fundamental freedoms that those citizens should enjoy. Peaceful protest, access to information and communications, because we know that there’s been a bit of a blackout. And we would also urge the authorities in Tehran to exercise restraint in their response to these protests.”

UK prime minister Keir Starmer is known for his strength on the international stage, but he has promised to focus on the cost of living – meaning domestic critics will be pressuring him not to interfere.