Prediction market traders bet against Trump's tariffs as Supreme Court ruling looms
Traders on prediction platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are betting that the nation’s highest court is unlikely to rule in favor of President Donald Trump's tariffs.
Traders on Kalshi now give a nearly 32% chance that the Supreme Court will side with Trump’s tariff plan, down 14 points after oral arguments in November signaled potential skepticism from the justices.
The trading volume, or the total dollar amount wagered on this market, is a little more than $3 million.
TRUMP DEFENDS TARIFFS, SAYS US HAS BEEN ‘THE KING OF BEING SCREWED’ BY TRADE IMBALANCE
Polymarket mirrors that sentiment, with odds also at 28%, down 9 points over the same period of time. The trading volume on Polymarket is a little north of $2.4 million.
Kalshi and Polymarket let users bet real money on everything from politics and economic policy to sports and pop culture, transforming public sentiment into tradable market odds.
TRUMP SAYS TARIFF REVENUE TO FUND $2K CHECKS FOR AMERICANS, LOWER NATION’S $38T DEBT
The Supreme Court ruling, expected this week, comes as tariff revenue – and the economic stakes tied to it – have surged to record levels.
Since Trump announced his "Liberation Day" tariffs in April, monthly collections have jumped from $23.9 billion in May to $31.6 billion in September. Total duty revenue reached $215.2 billion in fiscal year 2025, which ended Sept. 30, according to the Treasury Department’s Customs and Certain Excise Taxes report.
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That momentum has carried into the new fiscal year, with $99.5 billion collected since Oct. 1, Treasury data shows.
On Monday, Trump wrote on Truth Social that if the nation’s highest court did not side with his administration, the U.S. would be "screwed."