How I’d split California, economically speaking

Let my trusty spreadsheet join the parade of ideas on splitting up California.

Now, none of the concepts redrawing state borders have a political chance of becoming reality. There are simply too many partisan hurdles to overcome. But the breakup chatter continues because there are some wide divides across the Golden State that aren’t easy to bridge.

New population stats from the state Department of Finance reminded me that many of these chasms have a similar theme, at least economically speaking: the coastal communities vs. their inland peers.

First, here’s the suggested California split.

One state – let’s call it West California – comprises 17 ocean-close counties from the Bay Area to the Mexican border. It stretches from Sonoma, Marin, Napa, Solano, Alameda, Contra Costa, San Francisco, San Mateo, and Santa Clara counties through Santa Cruz, Monterey, San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara to Ventura, Los Angeles, Orange and San Diego.

The second proposed state – let’s call it East California – holds the 41 other largely inland counties.

Let’s start with a peek at populations. As of July 1, there were 26.3 million folks in West California – essentially double the 13.2 million in East California.

Please contemplate the heft of these two regions. The only state with more residents than my West California is Texas. And only Texas, Florida and New York are more populated than the theoretical East California.

So we’re still talking about national behemoths.

Ups and downs

Since the pandemic struck, population swings between the regions have clearly differed.

The statewide population was roughly flat from April 2020 through July 2025 – a 9,000-person dip. Yet there was a combined 248,000 drop in West California vs. a gain of 239,000 in East California.

Look at what’s behind that gap, in demographic terms, remembering that West California has double the population.

First, ponder “natural” growth – that is, more births than deaths – in the past five years. It was 330,000 in West California, compared with 197,000 in East California. That’s “only” 67% more for those coastal counties.

Next, note that West California drew more from abroad: 508,000 immigrants vs. 215,000 in East California, or 136% more.

Finally, you can’t ignore the dramatic gap in the net loss of residents to other states: West California’s 1.1 million, roughly six times the 173,000 in East California.

As alluring as the coastal life can be, Californians and/or inbound folks from other states have recently preferred inland options.

Commercially speaking

The coast remains the Golden State’s business hub.

West California’s 17 counties were home to 1.3 million establishments as of mid-year 2025 vs. 512,000 in East California – that’s 162% more.

Those workplaces employed 12.6 million in West California vs. 5 million in East California, or 152% more.

And West California jobs pay better. Per-capita incomes run $95,000 in coastal counties vs. $56,500 in East California – 68% more.

Larger population and better pay helps explain why taxable retail sales were $155 billion in West California in the second quarter, nearly double the $80 billion spent in East California.

Curiously, this slice of California consumer spending was 2% lower in West California when measured on a per-person basis – $5,902 vs. $6,022 in East California.

Such an oddity may be due to a hefty housing burden near the coast, leaving less for other household spending.

Pricey rooftops

Of course, California housing costs rise as you near the water.

West California’s home prices run $995,000, using Zillow data for November. It’s only $410,000 inland. That’s a 60% savings.

Think about the relative affordability. A West California home costs roughly 10 times per-capita income compared with in East California’s seven times income.

Sadly, California housing production has been modest for the past five years ending in April.

There were 349,000 new residential units in West California vs. East California’s 207,500. We’re talking meek growth: 3.6% on the coast and 4.5% inland.

Lofty cost burdens are a key reason West California’s homeownership is lower – 55% of households own their homes, compared with 64% in inland regions.

Plus, coastal life is also more crowded: 2.7 residents in a typical West California household vs. 2.55 inland.

Politically speaking

How does this split state look politically, at least according to voter registration stats?

West California would be a Democratic Party hot spot with 49% of all registered voters vs. 21% for Republicans. Another 29% are unaffiliated or support another political party.

Inland counties are much more of a toss-up. Democrats have 38% of registrations, Republicans have 33%, with the remaining 29% in that “unaligned/other” category.

Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com