Always Campaign Like We're Ten Points Behind
With public opinion sour on President Donald Trump, this year’s midterm environment is swinging further toward Democrats, with the Cook Political Report on Thursday saying that Democrats are now the favorite to win control of the House.
The political handicapping outlet moved 18 races in Democrats' direction, including two GOP-held seats that are now toss-ups, with Cook Political Report Senior Editor Dave Wasserman calling Democrats "modest favorites" for control.
"All the major indicators—the president's unpopularity, special election results and the generic congressional ballot—point to a favorable environment for Democrats," Cook Political Report analyst Erin Covey wrote in an analysis piece.
As it stands, 211 seats are either solidly, likely, or leaning toward Democrats, compared with 206 for the GOP. Another 18 seats are rated as toss-ups, 14 of which are held by Republicans.