Democrats Hold Small Lead Over Republicans in Early Midterm Polling

While midterm elections are still several months away, polling data is already suggesting that Democrats may have a lead over Republicans. In a generic ballot matchup, a Monday Rasmussen Reports survey found that Democrats lead the GOP by six points, 47% to 41%, with nearly 10% of voters saying that they’re undecided and 4% saying that they would vote for a different candidate. Democrats’ lead has doubled since November, when Rasmussen Reports found they lead Republican candidates 45% to 42%.

Of note, Democrats hold a particularly commanding lead among Independent voters, with 41% of voters unaffiliated with either party preferring a Democratic candidate, and only 33% backing a Republican. However, nearly 20% of Independent voters are undecided.

A CNN/SSRS survey published Sunday reached similar conclusions. Overall, 46% of polled voters said that they would vote for a Democrat over a Republican, while only 41% preferred a Republican, yielding a five-point difference. Registered Democrats are also the demographic most likely to vote in the midterms, the survey found: 80% of Democrats identified as either “extremely” or “very” motivated to vote, compared to 74% of registered Republicans and 61% of Independent voters.

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A poll from the Economist/YouGov conducted over the weekend found Democrats with a four-point headstart, leading Republicans 43% to 39%, while a Yahoo News/YouGov survey conducted earlier in the month handed Democrats a five-point lead, pulling ahead of Republicans 45% to 40%. A Cygnal Political survey found Democrats leading Republicans 48% to 45%. Numerous other surveys contain similar numbers, with neither Democrats nor Republicans scoring above 50% support, but Democrats consistently leading Republicans by anywhere from a single percentage point to nearly 10 points.

In a New York Times op-ed, however, Democratic Party strategist David Plouffe, who ran Barack Obama’s successful 2008 presidential campaign, warned that the party is “still in crisis” and will have to work hard to win in the midterms. Plouffe suggested that “to win races in politically unforgiving, even hostile, territory will require the party to overhaul its broken brand and stale agenda by elevating new faces and new leaders who promise to chart a course enough voters believe in.” He continued, “Why? Because to have any hope of fixing the root problems that plague our democracy and our economy, Democrats need a majority that lasts, like the New Deal coalition.”

Plouffe noted that three or more U.S. Supreme Court justices may retire within the next decade, warning that Democrats face a possible “conservative 8-to-1 court” if they do not regain power. “Right now, Democrats have no credible path to sustained control of the Senate and the White House,” the political strategist observed. “After the adjustments to the Electoral College map that look likely to come with the next census, the Democratic presidential nominee could win all the states won by Kamala Harris plus the blue wall of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin and still fall short of the 270 electoral votes needed to win. An already unforgiving map becomes more so. This is equally true of the Senate.”

“How do Democrats get back to playing and winning in more places?” Plouffe asked. “First, make our unpopular president and his vassals own everything — higher energy and health care costs, higher food bills, war,” he suggested. “The Republicans in Congress stood by meekly as Mr. Trump took a wrecking ball to our economy. They deserve the blame for it.”

Another veteran Democratic operative, James Carville, who was a lead strategist on Bill Clinton’s successful 1992 presidential campaign, disagreed, arguing that Republicans will face a “wipeout” in November. “Your viewers need to know that the Democrats are going to pick up at a minimum 25 seats, maybe as high as 45. In all likelihood, the Democrats will carry the Senate,” he told former White House Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany. “Frankly, it’s going to be a wipeout.”

LifeNews Note: S.A. McCarthy serves as a news writer at The Washington Stand.

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