106 housing markets are seeing falling home prices—and not a single one is in the Midwest
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Based on our analysis of the Zillow Home Value Index, U.S. home prices are up just 0.1% year over year from December 2024 to December 2025. That marks a deceleration from the +2.6% growth rate a year earlier—though national price growth has recently stabilized, ticking slightly higher from a low of -0.01% in August 2025.
In the first half of 2025, the number of major metro-area housing markets seeing year-over-year declines climbed. That count has since pretty much stopped ticking up.
- 31 of the nation’s 300 largest housing markets (10% of markets) had a falling year-over-year reading in the January 2024 to January 2025 window.
- 42 of the nation’s 300 largest housing markets (14% of markets) had a falling year-over-year reading in the February 2024 to February 2025 window.
- 60 of the nation’s 300 largest housing markets (20% of markets) had a falling year-over-year reading in the March 2024 to March 2025 window.
- 80 of the nation’s 300 largest housing markets (27% of markets) had a falling year-over-year reading in the April 2024 to April 2025 window.
- 96 of the nation’s 300 largest housing markets (32% of markets) had a falling year-over-year reading in the May 2024 to May 2025 window.
- 110 of the nation’s 300 largest housing markets (36% of markets) had a falling year-over-year reading in the June 2024 to June 2025 window.
- 105 of the nation’s 300 largest housing markets (36% of markets) had a falling year-over-year reading in the July 2024 to July 2025 window.
- 109 of the nation’s 300 largest housing markets (35% of markets) had a falling year-over-year reading in the August 2024 to August 2025 window.
- 105 of the nation’s 300 largest housing markets (35% of markets) had a falling year-over-year reading in the September 2024 to September 2025 window.
- 105 of the nation’s 300 largest housing markets (35% of markets) had a falling year-over-year reading in the October 2024 to October 2025 window.
- 98 of the nation’s 300 largest housing markets (33% of markets) had a falling year-over-year reading in the November 2024 to November 2025 window.
- 106 of the nation’s 300 largest housing markets (35% of markets) had a falling year-over-year reading in the December 2024 to December 2025 window.
As you can see above, in the first half of 2025, there was a notable increase in the number of housing markets slipping into year-over-year price declines as the supply-demand equilibrium (as measured by inventory) shifted more quickly toward homebuyers. Over the past seven months, however, the list of declining markets has begun to stabilize as inventory growth has decelerated.
Home prices are still climbing a little year over year in many regions where active inventory remains well below pre-pandemic 2019 levels, such as pockets of the Northeast and Midwest. In contrast, some pockets in states like Texas, Florida, and Colorado—where active inventory exceeds pre-pandemic 2019 levels by a solid clip—are seeing modest home price pullbacks or flat pricing.
Many of the housing markets seeing the most softness, where homebuyers have gained the most leverage, are primarily located in Sunbelt regions, particularly the Gulf Coast and Mountain West.
Many of these areas saw even greater price surges during the Pandemic Housing Boom, with home price growth outpacing local income levels. As pandemic-driven domestic migration slowed and mortgage rates rose in 2022, markets like Tampa and Austin faced challenges, relying on local income levels to support frothy home prices.
That Sunbelt softening was further compounded by an abundance of new home supply in the region. Builders are often willing to lower prices or offer affordability incentives to maintain sales, which also has a cooling effect on the resale market. As a result, some buyers who might have previously opted for existing homes are instead choosing new construction with more attractive deals—which added further upward pressure to resale inventory growth over the past few years.
Of course, while 106 of the nation’s 300 largest metro-area housing markets are seeing year-over-year home price declines, another 194 are seeing year-over-year home price increases.
Where are home prices still up on a year-over-year basis? See the map below.
Below is a historical chart showing the year-over-year change in home prices across the 50 largest metro housing markets, with the yellow line representing the national aggregate, dating back to 2000.