Analysing Liverpool’s likely route through the Champions League knockout rounds
Liverpool aren’t yet guaranteed a place in the last 16 of the Champions League, but a 3-0 victory over Marseille on Wednesday night leaves them odds-on to bypass the knockout play-off round.
The Reds must finish inside the top eight of the league phase standings to skip that awkward extra step in February, but with Arne Slot’s side fourth in the table ahead of the final matchday – when they host Qarabag at Anfield – the likelihood is that will succeed in that mission.
With Non-GamStop-Betting, you can view the best odds on selecting an outright winner for the 2025/26 Champions League, and fans are now starting to turn their attention towards the potential match-ups in the knockout bracket.
Let’s look at the most likely route Liverpool could take on the path towards the final in Budapest, with the caveat that this could change drastically after Wednesday night’s concluding matchday.
Round of 16 (if Liverpool finish fourth)
If each of the current top four win their final league phase fixture (a more than plausible scenario), the Reds would finish fourth (barring a huge goal difference swing to catch Real Madrid) and thus play against one of the teams in these finishing positions: 13th, 14th, 19th, 20th.
At present, those places are occupied by Atalanta, Inter Milan, Marseille and Bayer Leverkusen. In the admittedly unlikely event that all four finish in their current places, Liverpool would have the psychological benefit of having beaten two of those in the tournament already this season.
They also thumped the German side 4-0 last term, although Atalanta would be best avoided given the damage they’ve done to Liverpool in Europe over the past five years, especially at Anfield.
Quarter-finals
Should Liverpool go one better than 2024/25 and make it to the Champions League quarter-finals, they’ll play against one of the teams in these finishing positions: 5th, 6th, 11th, 12th, 21st, 22nd.
At present, those places are occupied by Tottenham, PSG, Manchester City, Atletico Madrid, Monaco and PSV Eindhoven – a mixture of teams who we’ve already beaten this season, and some who’ve scored big wins against the Reds in recent months.
PSG and Man City stand out as the obvious preferences to avoid, although a reunion with PSV would trigger unpleasant flashbacks to their 4-1 romp at Anfield in November.
Spurs and Monaco are both experiencing chastening domestic campaigns, but Thomas Frank’s side have been discernibly better in the Champions League than the Premier League.
Semi-finals
If Liverpool make it back to a first European semi-final since 2022, the likelihood is that they’ll encounter an elite name such as Arsenal, Bayern Munich or Real Madrid.
That’s to be expected at the business end of the Champions League, although we’ve already beaten the Gunners and Los Blancos this season, and the Bundesliga outfit – while free-scoring in every competition thus far – have some chinks in their armour that the Reds could exploit.
Reaching this stage of the tournament would’ve seemed like a pipe dream amid our atrocious form in the autumn, but if the history of LFC has taught us anything, it’s that European nights often bring out the best in this club!
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