Red-hot silver is 'almost guaranteed' to plunge 50% in the next year, JPMorgan's former quant chief says

• Silver is at records, but former JPM strategist Marko Kolanovic predicts a significant drop is coming.
• The metal's rise looks unsustainable, he says, predicting a crash coming within a year.
• Kolanovic warns that bubbles in commodities don't last.

Silver prices have soared, but one prominent market strategist thinks the rally's days are numbered.

Marko Kolanovic, the former quant chief at JPMorgan, predicts that the precious metal is on the verge of a plunge that could tank its price by half.

Kolanovic, who left JPMorgan in 2024, recently shared his view on the red-hot silver market, stating that he sees a major decline as a near-certainty.

The rush into precious metals has pushed both silver and gold to historic highs. A cocktail of geopolitical worries, central bank buying, and a general sense of FOMO among investors chasing the gains has helped drive the rally since the beginning of 2025.

But Kolanovic says the bulls should brace for a reversal.

"Silver is almost guaranteed to drop ~50% from these levels within a year or so," he said in a post on X. "Historically episodes in commodities or various speculative assets point to that."

Kolanovic added that, despite this bearish conviction, he still sees betting against silver as risky, citing the high market-to-market risk for short sellers.

The strategist said that commodity bubbles often fall harder than narrative-driven hype assets, as real-world forces tend to push back and cause reversals.

"Unlike purely fictitious assets like NFTs, bubble in commodity can't last long - industry demand dries up, supply e.g. recycling increases, and new production is hedged," he added.

Silver has blown past $100 per ounce in recent weeks, while gold has topped $5,000 for the first time, but more commentators have been growing cautious.

Peter Brandt, a prominent futures and commodities trader, has raised similar concerns regarding silver recently. In a post on X, he issued a stark warning for investors about previous rallies that didn't end well.

"Today nearly 2 years of world production traded on world exchanges," he noted. "More than 1.5 billion ounces. The last time such a proportion traded was Apr 25, the day of the 2011 top."