Opta supercomputer predicts Liverpool fate as top-eight race goes to the final night
Liverpool’s chances of success in the final Champions League league-phase game are clearer than the mood suggests after Bournemouth.
The defeat on the south coast hurt momentum but Europe has been a different story.
Opta’s pre-match analysis has Liverpool as overwhelming favourites to beat Qarabag at Anfield.
“Liverpool have a 79.6% chance of victory at home to Qarabag according to the Opta supercomputer.”
That alone frames the night, a win guarantees a top-eight finish and direct qualification to the last 16.
That matters because finishing in the top eight avoids the play-off round and gives us a rare mid-season breather.
What Opta’s numbers say about Liverpool’s top-eight chances
Liverpool enter the final matchday fourth in the Champions League table on 15 points, Opta’s projected final table has us finishing third if we do what is expected and win.
Qarabag, by contrast, start the night in 18th. Their European campaign has been impressive in spells, but history is against them here.
Qarabag have played four away games against English sides in Europe and they have lost all four with an aggregate score of 13–1.
That context matters when weighing up the probabilities.
Opta’s 10,000 simulations make Liverpool one of the strongest favourites across the entire matchday.
Only Arsenal are given a higher win probability in their fixture.
In short, the numbers say Liverpool should take care of business.
Liverpool vs Qarabag – Opta prediction
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 79.6% |
| Draw | 12.4% |
| Qarabag win | 8.0% |
Even a draw could still be enough to sneak into the top eight depending on results elsewhere.
But Liverpool do not need to gamble on permutations, we control our own fate.
Why Europe still suits Liverpool despite domestic issues
Recent Premier League form has raised legitimate concerns, five league wins in 18 matches tells its own story.
But Europe has consistently looked more comfortable under Arne Slot.
Since Slot took charge, Liverpool have the highest win percentage in the Champions League of any team.
We have won 13 of 17 European games under him, that context often gets lost in the noise.
Dominik Szoboszlai has been the clearest symbol of that difference, he leads Liverpool for goals and goal involvements in this Champions League campaign.
Virgil van Dijk has also been immense aerially in Europe, he has won 24 of 28 aerial duels in the competition.
That matters against a Qarabag side who rely heavily on Camilo Duran’s movement in the box.
Van Dijk has already summed up the internal mindset.
“We know what is at stake tonight, and it is up to us as a team to deliver the result – and the performance – that we need to secure our place in the Champions League last 16.”
That tone reflects a group who understand the opportunity, the Bournemouth defeat does not define our European season – if anything, it sharpens the focus.
Liverpool need to win and the statistics say we probably will.
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