Walters: Mahan’s campaign for California governor will be a voter litmus test

With the not-unexpected entry of San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, the large field of candidates to succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom is probably complete — and could very well shrink again.

The run-up to this moment has been the oddest gubernatorial election process in modern history with potential candidates serially dropping in and dropping out. Until Mahan’s announcement on Thursday, there were eight other Democrats — not counting the obscure vanity runners — and two Republicans in contention.

With the array now likely fixed and no shadow candidates of note remaining, things will begin to sort themselves out. Polling will become more precise, political financiers will make their commitments and those stuck at the bottom in polls and money will find other ways to exist. They may not drop out before June’s top-two primary, but will find themselves ignored by donors and the media.

That would still leave a half-dozen Democrats with at least outside chances of making it into the November runoff by finishing first or second in June.

Back to Mahan.

One of the most interesting things about the San Jose mayor is that he’s been a fairly harsh critic of Newsom. Until now, billionaire Tom Steyer has been the only Democratic hopeful to sharply criticize the state’s governance shortcomings, but he’s never explicitly linked Newsom to the state’s most obvious problems, such as housing shortages and high utility bills.

Mahan has been much more specific.

Last August, in a commentary for the San Francisco Standard, Mahan excoriated Newsom for spending so much time positioning himself as a foe of President Donald Trump, rather than dealing with California issues.

“Gov. Newsom’s supporters say he is ‘breaking the internet’ and ‘owning’ Trump,” Mahan wrote. “But the governor, and every elected official and leader, also need to own up to the truth. And the truth is that California has the highest unemployment rate in the nation, at 5.5%, and nearly half the nation’s unsheltered homeless people. We have the highest energy and housing costs in the continental United States, and, largely because of these high costs, the highest effective poverty rate in the nation.”

In declaring his candidacy, Mahan maintained his separation from the political status quo.

“I’m jumping in this race because we need a governor who is both a fighter for our values and a fixer of our problems,” he said. “We can fix the biggest problems facing California, and I believe that because we’re making real progress on homelessness, public safety (and) housing supply in San Jose.”

Given the state’s chronic budget deficits, one of the many issues for Mahan and other Democratic candidates will be whether the state should reduce spending or raise taxes. The latter is partly framed in a pending ballot initiative that would impose a 5% tax on the wealth of about 200 California billionaires, primarily for health care programs now facing reductions.

The wealth tax is a holy grail for the Democratic Party’s left wing and it’s an issue on which Newsom and Mahan agree. Both say that it would drive wealthy Californians out of the state, reduce their investments in job-creating business and deprive the state budget of their annual income taxes.

California is a deeply blue state but its Democratic politicians, including those running for governor, are not a monolith. Mahan and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa are probably the most centrist members of the field, and could face opposition from union leaders.

The outcome of the campaign will be a litmus test of just how left-of-center California truly is.

Dan Walters is a CalMatters columnist.