Big 12 MBB power rankings: Arizona, Houston on top as unbeaten Wildcats prepare for multi-week stretch of brutality
Welcome to the Hotline’s Big 12 men’s basketball power rankings, a weekly assessment of the conference using analytics and common sense, with a strand of pasta occasionally heaved at the wall when mayhem is rampant. The power rankings will be published each Tuesday through the end of the regular season. (Last week’s edition focused on coach Bobby Hurley’s looming dismissal by Arizona State.)
Arizona is the No. 1 team in the land and the only undefeated team in the power conferences but only this week became the betting favorite — the narrow betting favorite — to win the NCAA Tournament.
The level of faith in the Wildcats (22-0) doesn’t quite reflect the strength of their resume.
They don’t appear to possess a singular talent (aka: a dude) capable of carrying the team through multiple rounds of March Madness.
They rely heavily on three freshmen, guard Brayden Burries and forwards Koa Peat and Ivan Kharchenkov.
Although reasonably efficient from 3-point range, they shoot very few.
And their bench is thin.
But the Wildcats’ greatest flaw, obviously, is their flawless record. The perfection is a problem.
We’re joking, mostly.
There’s nothing inherently wrong with an undefeated record in early February, but there’s plenty problematic with an undefeated record in the middle of March.
Imagine the Wildcats with a 34-0 mark entering the NCAA Tournament, six wins from becoming the first team in 40 years to complete a perfect season.
The pressure would be overwhelming, particularly for a Final Four-or-bust program that has historically underperformed in March.
Arizona needs a loss … or three … before the tournament.
Of course, all losses are not created equal. And the Wildcats must avoid the type of resume-staining results that could derail their pursuit of a No. 1 seed and drop them onto the No. 2 line. Because as every Arizona fan knows, there’s a massive difference between the two seeds, especially in first-round success.
Fortunately for the Wildcats, the Big 12 is aiding the loss cause with a two-week stretch more ornery than a hippopotamus.
In a 13-day span that begins next week, Arizona faces No. 11 Kansas, No. 13 Texas Tech, No. 16 BYU and No. 8 Houston.
The first and last are on the road.
Combined record of the quartet: 69-17
And if the Wildcats somehow survive with their undefeated record intact, they can celebrate the accomplishment … at Baylor.
That’s the easy game during an extended stretch of brutality.
After visiting Waco, the Wildcats return home to face Kansas and No. 7 Iowa State in back-to-back fashion before ending conference play a mile high, in Boulder, where Arizona has lost five of its past six.
Put another way: Six of the Wildcats’ final eight games are against ranked opponents, and the other two are on the road.
It all starts Monday in Lawrence, following a weekend tune-up with Oklahoma State.
Arizona might have minor flaws to hide and nagging issues to resolve when March Madness arrives, but the skull-crushing pressure of an undefeated season won’t be on the list of concerns.
The Big 12 schedule-makers took care of that.
To the power rankings …
(Results and NET rankings through Monday)
1. Arizona (22-0/9-0)
Result: won at Arizona State 87-74NET ranking: No. 2Comment: For the record, the Wildcats are 355th in Division I (out of 361 teams) in 3-point attempts per game (16.6), but they are 58th in 3-point shooting percentage (36.3). And last we checked, percentages matter. (Previous: 1)
2. Houston (19-2/7-1)
Results: won at TCU 79-70, beat Cincinnati 76-54NET ranking: No. 9Comment: Although their NET ranking correlates to a No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament, the Cougars have played like a No. 2 seed and are three baskets (against Tennessee and Texas Tech) from being undefeated. No right-thinking opponent would want to face them before the championship game. (Previous: 3)
3. Iowa State (20-2/7-2)
Results: beat Colorado 97-67, won at Kansas State 95-61NET ranking: No. 4Comment: The 64-point combined victory margin for the two-game sweep is easily explained: The Cyclones were 24-of-48 from 3-point range. We suggest saving some of that long-range fortune for March. (Previous: 4)
4. Kansas (17-5/7-2)
Results: beat BYU 90-82, won at Texas Tech 64-61NET ranking: No. 13Comment: Look who’s playing like a Final Four threat after those early-January losses at UCF and West Virginia. If the Jayhawks keep this up, the Big 12 tournament will be beyond belief. (Previous: 6)
5. Texas Tech (16-6/6-3)
Results: lost at UCF 88-80 and to Kansas 64-61NET ranking: No. 20Comment: The Red Raiders were outscored 14-2 by KU over the final six minutes, a script flip partly attributable to guard Christian Anderson’s absence. Role players don’t close out games; that task is left to the stars. (See: Peterson, Darryn.) And Anderson is a star. (Previous: 2)
6. BYU (17-4/5-3)
Result: lost at Kansas 90-82NET ranking: No. 15Comment: It has been two months since the Cougars defeated an opponent that would make the NCAA Tournament’s at-large field (Clemson, on Dec. 9). That’s hardly cause for alarm in Provo with more than a month remaining until Selection Sunday, but it’s reason for mild concern. (Previous: 5)
7. UCF (17-4/6-3)
Results: beat Arizona State 79-76 and Texas Tech 88-80NET ranking: No. 37Comment: The Knights are in position for the NCAAs as long as they don’t bungle the opportunity with Quadrant III and IV losses down the stretch. We are increasingly confident in their ability to avoid a face plant. (Previous: 7)
8. Colorado (13-9/3-6)
Results: lost at Iowa State 97-67, beat TCU 87-61NET ranking: No. 75Comment: A 30-point road loss followed days later by a 26-point home victory pretty much describes Colorado basketball over the years. Put another way: It’s a swing of 56 points and roughly 5,000 feet. (Previous: 9)
9. Baylor (12-9/2-7)
Results: lost at Cincinnati 67-57, won at West Virginia 63-53NET ranking: No. 55Comment: The victory in Morgantown, although impressive, does not change the overall trajectory for a team that has lost seven of its last nine and lacks the defensive fortitude needed to recalibrate. (Previous: 10)
10. TCU (13-9/3-6)
Results: lost to Houston 79-70, lost at Colorado 87-61NET ranking: No. 54Comment: More than half of TCU’s victories (seven) are of the Quadrant IV variety, and the soft finishing schedule offers fewer Quadrant I opportunities than the Horned Frogs need in order to self-correct. (Previous: 8)
11. Oklahoma State (15-6/3-5)
Result: won at Utah 81-69NET ranking: No. 68Comment: Even if the Cowboys string wins together over the next month, their soft non-conference schedule will remain an anchor that cannot be cut loose. (Previous: 11)
12. West Virginia (14-8/5-4)
Results: beat Kansas State 59-54, lost to Baylor 63-53NET ranking: No. 66Comment: The Mountaineers are just two spots higher in the results-based NET than in the Pomeroy Ratings, which are predictive in nature. So what you see is, most likely, what you will get. (Previous: 12)
13. Cincinnati (11-11/3-6)
Result: beat Baylor 67-57, lost at Houston 76-54NET ranking: No. 78Comment: The Bearcats’ position in the NET is worth monitoring. They currently count as a Quadrant II opponent when playing in Cincinnati and a Quadrant III foe when on the road. If they sneak into the top 75, those results change to Quad I and Quad II, respectively. (Previous: 14)
14. Arizona State (11-11/2-7)
Results: lost at UCF 79-76 and to Arizona 87-74NET ranking: No. 81Comment: Trailing UCF by four games in the standings is a greater indictment of Bobby Hurley’s program than trailing Arizona by seven games. (Previous: 13)
15. Kansas State (10-12/1-8)
Results: lost at West Virginia 59-54 and to Iowa State 95-61NET ranking: No. 93Comment: Don’t be surprised if there are four or five coaching changes in the Big 12 this spring — and that’s just the number of dismissals. You never know which coaches might jump into the SEC or Big Ten. (Previous: 15)
16. Utah (9-12/1-7)
Result: lost to Oklahoma State 81-69NET ranking: No. 116Comment: Losing at home to Oklahoma State by double digits is a bad loss. But you know what’s worse: When it’s not the worst loss of the season. (Previous: 16)
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