Canadian Commercial Real Estate Investment Expected to Rebound in 2026: CBRE
According to CBRE’s Canada Real Estate Market Outlook, investment in Canadian commercial real estate is expected to rebound in 2026, with the volume of property sales forecasted to rise by over 8 per cent.
When coupled with merger and acquisition activity and portfolio deals, total investment volume could hit ~$56 billion, which would be up from an estimated $47 billion in 2025 and ranked as the third highest total in Canadian commercial real estate sales history.
“We’re coming off a year of uncertainty, but international capital has already voted in favour of Canadian commercial real estate,” said CBRE Canada president and CEO Jon Ramscar. “We have seen assets purchased across the country due to our strong fundamentals and relative stability. In 2026 we expect widespread and competitive participation from all sources of capital, domestic and international. Not to mention that the resurgent office market will spur transactions and our retail market remains solid.”
CBRE’s Canada Real Estate Market Outlook sees the investment picture shaping up for the four major commercial real estate asset types with stronger office sentiment, resilient seniors housing, an industrial inflection point, and stabilizing retail.
Following two years of positive net absorption and national vacancy having peaked, the office market has stabilized and is transitioning to a period of sustained growth. As a result, investor sentiment around office has improved, bolstered by return-to-office mandates for public and private sector workers. A receptive debt market has also embraced the asset class, despite it being mostly for high quality Class A product. Office investment volumes are set to rebound back to levels more consistent with its historical share of total activity.
Seniors housing is set to benefit from strong market fundamentals over the next few years. An aging Canadian population is driving tailwinds in the asset class. Demand is expected to surge and continue to support double-digit rent growth that outpaces expense growth. Despite growing demand, new supply of seniors housing is also expected to remain limited given the gap between current market rents and the rents needed to make new construction of projects financially viable. In 2026 and beyond, competition for seniors housing assets is expected to intensify as more investors seek to enter this asset class.
In terms of industrial market fundamentals, they are balanced and moving toward an inflection point in 2026. With demand expected to build, net absorption of industrial space is forecast to rebound further to over 20 million sq. ft. in 2026, returning to levels in line with national pre-pandemic norms. Trade remains a concern for the Canadian industrial market as a review of the Canadian-United States-Mexico Agreement is scheduled for July. The resilience of the Canadian economy amid U.S. tariffs so far has been primarily due to CUSMA, according to CBRE, which says its preservation is critical to stabilizing the industrial market.
Compared to this time last year, retailers are on a more stable footing at the outset of 2026. Overall performance will be localized and vary geographically. Secondary or tertiary cities are trending positively and seeing the greatest runway for growth, according to CBRE. Many major brands are following demographic shifts and infrastructure investments, expanding into new or previously untapped markets across Canada.