Global air cargo demand grew by 3.4 per cent in 2025

Global air cargo demand rose by 3.4 per cent in 2025 compared with the previous year, according to data released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

At the same time, total capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometres (ACTK), increased by 3.7 per cent year on year. For international operations, demand rose by 4.2 per cent, while capacity expanded by 5.1 per cent.

December, meanwhile, brought the year to a close with continued strong performance. Global demand was 4.3 per cent higher than in December 2024, while capacity rose by 4.5 per cent. International demand increased by 5.5 per cent, with capacity up 6.4 per cent.

Against this backdrop, IATA said full-year yields fell by 1.5 per cent year on year, marking the smallest decline in three years as a more normal supply-demand balance was restored and exceptionally strong COVID and post-COVID pricing continued to taper.

Even so, yields remained 37.2 per cent above 2019 levels.

Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general, said air cargo delivered a strong performance in 2025, with “demand up 3.4 per cent year-on-year”, as global e-commerce strength drove volumes even as trading relationships with the US faced rising tariffs, the removal of de minimis tariff exemptions and continuing policy uncertainty.

At the same time, he said air cargo “rose to the occasion”, adapting quickly to support global businesses and supply chains as shippers front-loaded product deliveries ahead of tariff impositions and adjusted to rising demand within Asia and between Asia and Europe as US-Asia trade stagnated.

Looking ahead, Walsh said “growth in 2026 is expected to moderate slightly to 2.4 per cent, in line with historical trends”.

Even so, he said “whatever trading patterns emerge, we can be confident that reliance on air cargo to keep global supply chains running will remain”, with carriers responding by deploying capacity and designing their networks for optimum flexibility.

The broader operating environment, however, remained mixed. Global trade in goods grew by 2.5 per cent in 2024, while year-to-date growth for January to November 2025 accelerated to 4.4 per cent, compared with 2.4 per cent over the same period a year earlier.

Fuel costs offered some relief. Jet fuel prices fell by 3.1 per cent in December and averaged 9.1 per cent lower in 2025 than in 2024.

However, higher crack spreads meant refiners captured more margin, offsetting part of the benefit for airlines.

Manufacturing sentiment also improved in December, with the global PMI rising to 50.9.

New export orders, however, slipped to 49.1, remaining below the 50-point expansion threshold amid ongoing tariff uncertainty.

Regionally, Asia-Pacific carriers recorded the strongest performance in 2025, with demand up 8.4 per cent and capacity rising by 7.4 per cent.

In December, demand increased by 9.4 per cent, while capacity grew by 8.3 per cent.

European airlines, meanwhile, posted a 2.9 per cent increase in full-year demand, with capacity up 3.1 per cent. December demand rose by 4.9 per cent, with capacity increasing by 3.9 per cent.

Middle Eastern carriers saw demand edge up 0.3 per cent over the year.

Capacity, however, expanded faster, rising 4.5 per cent and putting pressure on load factors. In December, demand increased by 4.2 per cent, while capacity surged by 10.6 per cent.

African airlines delivered one of the strongest performances globally, with full-year demand up 6 per cent. December volumes rose by 10.1 per cent, the highest monthly growth of all regions.

By contrast, North American carriers recorded a 1.3 per cent decline in full-year demand, the only regional contraction. December demand fell by 2.2 per cent, while capacity declined by 2.6 per cent.

Latin American and Caribbean airlines saw demand rise by 2.3 per cent over the year. December, however, marked a setback, with volumes falling by 4.1 per cent, the weakest monthly performance globally.

Across trade lanes, IATA said 2025 data pointed to a clear shift in global air cargo flows away from Asia–North America toward Asia–Europe, driven by tariff pressures and the removal of the US de minimis exemption.

As a result, Europe–Asia volumes rose by 10.3 per cent, while within-Asia traffic increased by 10.0 per cent. Europe–North America demand grew by 6.8 per cent, while Middle East–Asia volumes rose by 5.8 per cent.

By contrast, Asia–North America demand fell by 0.8 per cent, losing market share. Within-Europe traffic declined by 1.4 per cent, while Europe–Middle East volumes fell by 3.4 per cent.