On Tuesday, the US Navy shot down an Iranian drone allegedly on its way to attack the USS Abraham Lincoln—but neither America nor Iran has called for further hostility since.

On Tuesday, a US Marine Corps F-35C Lightning II stealth fighter jet shot down an Iranian drone as it was approaching the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier. The event raised speculation that a wider conflict between Iran and the United States could soon be at hand—but in the hours since, it appears that tensions have not increased, while further efforts at diplomacy to resolve the crisis are still on track.

Why Did the US Shoot Down an Iranian Drone?

US military radars picked up the Iranian Shahed-129 unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) flying toward the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier and its battle group as they were sailing in the Arabian Sea.

According to US officials, an F-35C Lightning II was scrambled to intercept the Iranian unmanned aerial system as it was flying toward the carrier battle group. The stealth fighter jet successfully shot down the Iranian drone.  

The USS Abraham Lincoln is carrying nine air squadrons as part of the Carrier Air Wing (CVW) 9. One of these squadrons, the Marine Fighter Attack Squadron (VMFA) 314, operates the F-35C Lightning II stealth fighter jet.  

Revealed in 2012, the Shahed-129 is a medium-altitude long-endurance (MALE) unmanned aerial vehicle. At first glance, the drone is very similar to the US MQ-1 Predator, the predecessor of the MQ-9 Reaper. The drone sports a conventional fuselage, rear-mounted pusher propeller, and straight wings. It is not a kamikaze drone like its famous Shahed-136, but rather can carry missiles for kinetic strikes, and also conduct intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance missions.  

The Shootdown Incident Hasn’t Led to War—Yet

Tuesday’s incident has understandably raised fears of war between the United States and Iran—particularly if US officials are correct that the drone had intended to target the USS Abraham Lincoln. If so, this could very well be the excuse that the White House has been looking for to launch a military operation against Iran.

But no movement has taken place on this yet. A meeting between US and Iranian officials, including US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, is still scheduled to take place later this week in Turkey. Meanwhile, the status of US forces in the Middle East has largely remained unchanged.

The current round of tensions between the United States and Iran began in early January, after a collapse in the value of Iran’s currency led to widespread protests against the ruling clerical authorities. Although widespread protests against the regime in Tehran are not novel—previously having taken place in 2009, 2017, 2019, and most recently in 2022–2023—the rapid ignition of the protests and their intensity prompted the regime to launch a widespread crackdown, killing and arresting thousands of demonstrators.

President Donald Trump had warned in the run-up to the massacre that the United States would intervene in Iran if the authorities took violent action against the protesters. After the Iranian government disregarded this advice and launched its crackdown, Trump initially appeared poised to take action, but later relented after the Iranian government promised not to execute dissidents that it had arrested during the protests.

However, Trump also ordered a large naval task force toward Iran—raising the possibility that the United States could carry out a military intervention similar to its recent strike inside Venezuela, which captured longtime leader Nicolas Maduro.

“A massive Armada is heading to Iran. It is moving quickly, with great power, enthusiasm, and purpose. It is a larger fleet, headed by the great Aircraft Carrier Abraham Lincoln, than that sent to Venezuela,” the president said in a post on the Truth Social platform last week.  

Other air and naval assets are also in place around Iran, including hundreds of fighter jets, several Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyers, submarines, and the Lincoln’s carrier strike group.

Could the Iran Crisis End Through Diplomacy?

As a result of diplomatic and military pressure, Tehran has expressed a willingness to negotiate with the US. The White House’s goal seems to be an agreement about the future of Iran and a definitive solution on the country’s nuclear weapons program. Indeed, the administration appears to be using the threat of retribution for the violent crackdown as a way to deal with the threat of Iran for years to come.  

Discussions have been going on between American and Iranian officials in an attempt to find a peaceful solution. But Tuesday’s incident has offered the White House the excuse it wants to commence military action against Iran, if it chooses to.  

About the Author: Stavros Atlamazoglou  

Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from the Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.   

Image: Wikimedia Commons.

The post Will Yesterday’s Iran Drone Shootdown Lead to War? Here’s What to Know appeared first on The National Interest.