Kurtenbach: My Super Bowl prediction — 49ers fans probably won’t like it

SAN FRANCISCO — Look, I know what you want. You want the Cinderella story. You want to talk yourself into Drake Maye, the second-year savior, rising from the 3-14 dumpster fire of yesteryear to hoist a Lombardi Trophy in the Bay.

I also know what you don’t want: The 49ers’ top rival winning a title at Levi’s Stadium.

So I’m sorry, but I have bad news to deliver.

The reality of Super Bowl LX is about to hit the New England Patriots like a blindside sack.

While the betting public is busy romanticizing a tight game, the tape and the numbers suggest we’re heading for a bloodbath. The Seattle Seahawks aren’t just the better team; they are a defensive juggernaut the likes of which we haven’t seen in a long, long time. The Patriots? They just don’t stack up.

Here is why the title is getting a one-way ticket to the Pacific Northwest.

The “Cupcake” Mirage

To understand why the Patriots are walking into a buzzsaw, you have to look at how they got here. Yes, they’ve lost once since Week 3. All those W’s look great on a graphic. But New England’s path to this Sunday has been paved with foam padding.

Look at the quarterbacks this team beat. They feasted on Spencer Rattler, Cam Ward, and a battered Lamar Jackson who barely cleared 100 yards passing. Add in some Justin Fields, Connor Cook, and Quinn Ewers for good measure. Their playoff run? They dispatched an offensively inept Chargers team, a somehow worse Texans offense, and a Denver team starting Jared Stidham in a snowstorm.

The Patriots has been playing on “Easy” mode this season. On Sunday, the difficulty flips to “All-Pro.” They haven’t faced a team with Seattle’s structural integrity or a defense that can suffocate you while its offense actually punishes your mistakes.

A Historic Defensive Wall

The centerpiece of this mismatch is the Seattle defense. Under head coach Mike Macdonald, this unit has evolved into a nightmare. We saw them turn the 49ers into a puddle in a 41-6 wild-card thumping. And no matter how their offense plays — they were 14th in the league in EPA per play this season, with the ability to ramp up into an elite unit at times — their defense gave them a shot to win every game.

Seattle’s losses this season have been by a combined total of nine points.

Read that again. In an 18-week season and a playoff run, Seattle has always had a chance to win the game. Even when Matt Stafford and the Rams threw the kitchen sink at them in the NFC Championship — racking up 479 yards — they only managed 27 points… and a loss.

Meanwhile, New England feasted on the easiest schedule in the league. Despite that, Seattle’s point differential was three touchdowns better than the Patriots’.

The Maye Meltdown

It’s factual that Maye might be the league’s MVP.

That form — worthy of season-long accolades or not — has not shown up in the playoffs. He is currently putting up one of the worst statistical playoff runs for a quarterback in the last decade, posting a minus-17.7 expected points added.

He has been incredibly careless with the football — fumbling four times in one game and six times overall this postseason. And against an average team, you might survive that. After all, he did.

Against Seattle? It’s a death sentence. Macdonald’s scheme is designed to trick young QBs into holding the ball for that extra half-second — just a bit more time for someone to get home — and in putting the ball where the defense wants it to go.

Maye has done both without much coaxing this postseason.

The Trench Mismatch

If you’re a Patriots fan, Will Campbell should be keeping you up at night because he’s keeping Maye on the ground in games. The left tackle has been barbecue chicken all postseason — giving up pressure on nearly one out of every six snaps. Let me translate that: It’s awful.

Nearly half the time Maye has been pressured this postseason, he’s been sacked (14/31). Now he faces a Seattle front that ranked fourth in the NFL in pressure rate this regular season.

They don’t even need to blitz to ruin your day — that pressure rate came despite a bottom-five blitz rate.

But when the Seahawks do blitz? Good luck identifying where the heat is coming from.

Seattle will turn the Pats’ offensive line into a turnstile, and Maye will accordingly hit new statistical lows.

The Verdict

Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold doesn’t need to be a hero; he just needs to be efficient, and he has been. With Jaxon Smith-Njigba ready to carve up a New England secondary that hasn’t seen a true WR1 in months (the last time they did, Drake London went for 118 yards and three touchdowns).

There is a way for the Pats to win this game, of course, but there are simply more ways for the Seahawks, who boast a better defense, an equivalent offense, and markedly better special teams.

The Patriots are a nice story, I suppose, but magic can only get you to the Super Bowl.

Quality wins it.

And, I think, wins it big.

This won’t be a nail-biter; it’ll be a clinic. Take the Seahawks -4.5 (if you can) and don’t be surprised when the lead hits double digits before the halftime show.

Prediction: Seattle Seahawks 31, New England Patriots 10.