Pac-12 MBB power rankings: New and old versions of the conference have much in common
Welcome to the latest installment of the Hotline’s Pac-12 men’s basketball power rankings, our weekly assessment of the reconstituted conference using results, analytics and a dash of common sense. The power rankings will be published each Monday through the end of the regular season. Here is last week’s edition.
The conference that doesn’t exist is tracking for the same fate on Selection Sunday as the conference that used to exist.
With March Madness fast approaching, teams in the rebuilt Pac-12 should receive at least two bids and perhaps as many as four. That mirrors the likely total awaiting the 10 Pac-12 legacy schools now scattered across the Big 12, Big Ten and ACC.
Of the departed contingent, only Arizona is a lock to make the NCAA Tournament field as an at-large team. USC, UCLA and Cal (yes, Cal) are squarely on the bubble with five weeks remaining.
The other six seemingly must win their conference tournaments to make the 68-team field.
All in all, the schools not named Arizona have produced a mass of mediocrity led by UCLA, where coach Mick Cronin continues to gripe about the Big Ten schedule, and injury-depleted Oregon, which is experiencing its worst season under Dana Altman.
Arizona State appears destined to fire Bobby Hurley. Colorado could do the same with Tad Boyle. Stanford and Washington have improved under Kyle Smith and Danny Sprinkle, respectively, but remain average. Utah is struggling with rookie coach Alex Jensen.
Meanwhile, the reconstructed Pac-12, which comes online next season, has one tournament bid secured courtesy of Gonzaga. But Utah State is oh-so-close to lock status with a No. 25 NET ranking.
Like the Bruins and Trojans, San Diego State is on the tournament bubble and in need of a strong finish. A fourth member of the new conference, Boise State, possesses an extremely narrow path into the at-large field.
Our best guess based on current resumes and upcoming schedules: The former Pac-12 accounts for two bids (Arizona and either USC or UCLA) while the new Pac-12 collects three (Gonzaga, Utah State and San Diego State).
Clarity should emerge by the end of the month. But regardless of the final bid tally, the mere fact that the old and new versions of the conference are on comparable trajectories illustrates how poorly the former members, with one exception, have performed.
To the power rankings …
(Results and NET rankings through Sunday)
1. Utah State (20-3)
Results: won at New Mexico 86-66 and Wyoming 85-83
NET ranking: No. 25
Comment: Given the opponent, location and score, Utah’s victory in Albuquerque stands as the most impressive conference win of the Mountain West season, thus far. And combined with Gonzaga’s loss, the Aggies vaulted to the top of the power rankings for the first time this season. (Previous: 2)
2. Gonzaga (23-2)
Results: lost at Portland 87-80, won at Oregon State 81-61
NET ranking: No. 7
Comment: The Hotline hasn’t been wrong about anything in at least 20 minutes. But it’s exceedingly difficult to see a path to a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament for the Zags following that Portland stunner. They are now the only team in the top 20 of the NET rankings with a Quadrant III loss. (Previous: 1)
3. San Diego State (17-6)
Results: beat Wyoming 72-63, won at Air Force 88-54
NET ranking: No. 42
Comment: The Aztecs are a one-point loss at Grand Canyon and a five-point loss at Utah State away from being undefeated in Mountain West play. More significant: They are a one-loss home loss to Troy (No. 115 in the NET) from being perfect against Quadrant II, III and IV opponents. Without that result, their profile would look markedly different. (Previous: 3)
4. Boise State (15-9)
Results: beat Nevada 91-87 (OT), won at New Mexico 91-90
NET ranking: No. 54
Comment: Not only have the Broncos won six of their past seven, but the schedule sets up nicely for them to win five of their final seven. And winning 11 of 14 would be a superb way to end the regular season. (Previous: 4)
5. Oregon State (13-13)
Results: beat Washington State 74-64, lost to Gonzaga 81-61
NET ranking: No. 203
Comment: The Beavers’ late-season momentum, courtesy of three wins in their past four games, is equal parts surprising and fleeting. They have upcoming trips to San Francisco, Seattle and Santa Clara. (Previous: 6)
6. Washington State (11-15)
Results: lost at Oregon State 74-64 and to Santa Clara 96-92
NET ranking: No. 133
Comment: The Cougars are tracking to finish with a 9-9 record in WCC play, and that might be just good enough for the No. 4 seed in Las Vegas and a bye into the quarterfinals. To that end, the home game next week against Pacific is significant. (Previous: 5)
7. Fresno State (11-12)
Results: beat UNLV 98-96, lost at Nevada 69-59
NET ranking: No. 139
Comment: Not on our Mountain West bingo card for 2026: That Fresno State would enter the stretch run with a chance to finish above UNLV in the standings. But with four weeks remaining, the Bulldogs are within one game of the Rebels. (Previous: 7)
8. Colorado State (13-10)
Results: beat San Jose State 65-57
NET ranking: No. 98
Comment: The Rams’ 10-point win at Grand Canyon in early January belongs on the short list of nonsensical results thus far in the Mountain West, and there have been a few stunners. (Previous: 8)
9. Texas State (15-11)
Results: won at Georgia Southern 77-71, beat Western Michigan 77-61
NET ranking: No. 255
Comment: That’s four in a row and six of the eight for the surging Bobcats, who host Sun Belt leader Troy this week. (Previous: 9)
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