Northern Sea Route Carried Less Cargo Last Year Than Previous Year And Far Less Than Moscow Had Projected – OpEd

The volume of cargo carried via the Northern Sea Route in 2025 was 870,000 tons less than a year earlier and stood at 37 million tons, less than half the figure that Moscow had projected for either year only four years ago and experts saying there is little likelihood that things will improve in 2026.

That is the conclusion of research by the Gekon Consulting Center which like all observers of the NSR faces increasing difficulty in coming up with numbers because Moscow has shuttered the digital platform of the NSR and restricted the release of other data (ru.thebarentsobserver.com/perevozki-po-sevmorputi-sokratilis-do-37-mln-tonn/444907).

The 2.3 percent year on year decline from 2024 to 2025 is a summary figure. There have been increases in some types of cargo such as processed rare earth minerals that almost cover larger declines in raw oil, gas and coal shipments.  Container shipments also grew but from an extremely small base, Gekon says.

The number of voyages remained constant between 2024 and 2025, but the volume increased slightly and the flows in and out of Russian ports became more export-oriented last year than they had been the year before. According to the study, in 2025, “exports exceeded imports by more than two to one.

Because of sanctions, few ships from foreign countries made the crossing. Instead, Russia has used ever more foreign-flagged vessels of Russia’s “shadow fleet,” ships that “often do not meet ice class and safety standards” and thus threaten the region’s fragile eco-system in the event of accidents.