La Niña Wanes, Neutral Conditions Expected To Follow
The reign of La Niña should soon end, according to the Climate Prediction Center, which estimated that there’s a 60% chance the climate phenomenon’s current outing wraps up between February and April this year.
The agency expects a period of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral through the summer, adding that there’s a 50 to 60% chance of El Niño forming during the late summer and beyond.
Although the Climate Prediction Center, which publishes updates on the status of the ENSO, added a caveat for the latter forecast.
“Model uncertainty remains considerable, and forecasts made this time of year tend to have lower accuracy,” the agency wrote.
Here's a look at historical El Niño snow patterns between 1959 and 2023.
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NOAA Climate.gov map, based on data analyzed by Michelle L'Heureux
Skiers, weather fans, and meteorologists know the ENSO well because of its climate impacts. It unfolds in three parts: La Niña, El Niño, and neutral.
During the La Niña phase, which is associated with cooler sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, the jet stream tends to shift north.
Historically, that translates to greater odds of cooler and wetter weather in states like Washington, Idaho, and Oregon (read: more winter snow). The opposite is true for the southern U.S., which trends towards drier and warmer weather.
El Niño, meanwhile, flips the entire script, pushing the jet stream south.
When the neutral phase sets in, ENSO doesn't have a strong hold on the weather, making it harder for scientists to anticipate what the atmosphere does far in advance.
As of now, El Niño is the most likely pattern for this upcoming season. That might not be great news for skiers in the Pacific Northwest, where, on average, El Niño seasons produce less snow than usual.
It could also have implications beyond North America’s ski slopes. The ENSO phase often corresponds with warmer global temperatures, perhaps setting the stage for further increases next winter.
And, perhaps most importantly, ENSO flip-flops take place against the backdrop of climate change, which has resulted in gradually shrinking snow totals.
For now, though, it’s still the 2025-26 season and, if you’re a North American skier who hasn’t checked the upcoming forecast yet, you should: it’s supposed to snow a lot.