Why top economist says the US will continue to dodge a recession through the end of the decade

• Economist Ed Yardeni touted his "Roaring 20s" thesis in a new outlook on Friday.
• The economist remains bullish on US growth and corporate earnings.
• He thinks the economy will remain resilient and avoid a downturn through the rest of this decade.

Ed Yardeni thinks the US is in the midst of the "Roaring 20s," which will carry the economy through the rest of the decade without a recession.

In a video update on Friday, the founder of Yardeni Research re-upped his bullish thesis, noting that he sees no reason for the US to tumble into a recession in the coming four years. His market views have been similarly bullish. In recent years, the economist has predicted the Dow to hit 60,000 and the S&P 500 to rise to 8,000 by the end of the decade.

"We've got four more years to go. The end of the decade is the end of 2029," he stated. "I'm still thinking that we're not going to have a recession between now and the end of the decade."

Here's what he's watching.

The US is demonstrating clear economic resilience…

Yardeni noted the primary reason for his bullishness is the sheer resilience that the US economy has shown, which he measures by the frequency of recession. He noted that he doesn't think the US has seen an actual one since 2008.

"It's been hit by a lot of shocks and yet it continues to grow," Yardeni stated of the US economy. "We had one recession that lasted all of two months back in 2020, but that was not really a legitimate recession."

…Which means strong earnings for the S&P 500

The US economy's ability to keep chugging along has been a boon for the stock market, which has been enjoying in a nearly two-decade-long secular bull market. Yardeni highlighted the progress made by many S&P 500 members, which enjoyed significant growth for most of 2025.

While some high-growth S&P stocks have struggled recently due to AI-related fears, Yardeni isn't concerned about this bearish trend persisting, adding that he thinks market strength will remain intact.

"I think we can also conclude that because of the resilience of the economy, earnings have been remarkably resilient for the S&P 500 and indeed they've been so during the current uh growing 2020 scenario," he noted.

Future growth is on track

Yardeni also expects real GDP growth to continue into 2026. He predicts that this year's GDP will expand by 3.5% to 4.5%, citing gains in productivity.

The economist acknowledged that the 4.5% figure may strike some as overly optimistic, but he maintained that it fits within his broader Roaring 20s model and forecast.

"That might be the outlook actually for the rest of the decade if things continue to go along as we're expecting," Yardeni added.