A Major Winter Storm Is Coming to California. What Ski Resorts Could Get the Most Snow?

A major Sierra storm arrives late Sunday and runs through Thursday.

The heaviest snow falls from Monday through Wednesday, and totals build into the multi-foot range along the crest. Winds ramp Saturday and stay active through the heart of the storm, so expect wind-affected snow on exposed terrain.

Snow levels start around 4500-5500 feet as the storm spins up Monday, then drop hard Monday night into Tuesday and stay low through Wednesday. That trend lifts snow ratios from moderate early to fluffy and locally blower midweek. Wednesday and Thursday look like the cleanest windows for high-quality turns once the colder air settles in.

Kirkwood, Mammoth, Sugar Bowl, and Palisades Tahoe lead the depth charts through Thursday afternoon. Confidence stays high on the Sunday through Thursday storm sequence, and the forecast gets more uncertain after that. Another round remains possible late in the window, with a wide range of outcomes across the model guidance.

California Ski Resort Snowfall Totals February 15-19

Keep in mind that this storm is still several days out. Forecasted totals can and will shift ahead of its arrival.

• Mt. Rose: 24-40 inches
• Heavenly: 24-41 inches
• Northstar: 31-53 inches
• Sugar Bowl: 44-75 inches
• Palisades Tahoe: 45-76 inches
• Mammoth: 46-78 inches
• Kirkwood: 56-97 inches

Storm Timing and Discussion

Friday through Sunday morning stays mostly dry across the Sierra resorts, with ridge winds steadily increasing Saturday and Sunday.

All models converge on snow developing late Sunday and expanding quickly overnight. That first round looks light, and it sets the stage for a much stronger sequence early next week.

From Monday through early Thursday, those same models stay aligned on repeated heavy pulses, and the spread comes from the strength and exact timing of each wave.

Snow levels hover near 4500-5500 feet early Monday, then crash to around 1500-3000 feet from Tuesday into Wednesday, and the guidance stays tightly clustered on that cooling trend.

By Tuesday afternoon, Kirkwood could already stack up around 35-57 inches, with Sugar Bowl, Palisades Tahoe, and Mammoth clustered near 29-49 inches, and the storm keeps adding snow into Wednesday.

By Thursday afternoon, Kirkwood leads with about 56-97 inches, with Mammoth around 46-78 inches and Sugar Bowl and Palisades Tahoe each around 44-76 inches.

Wind becomes the main limiter on quality during the peak snowfall, especially late Monday into Tuesday, when several models push sustained upper-mountain winds into the 40-55 mph range at the most exposed ridges.

Snow ratios trend towards the moderate on Monday and Tuesday, then rise into the fluffy to blower range on Wednesday and Thursday as colder air settles in. Guidance diverges late in the window, with a few solutions producing another small to moderate round of snow and others turning quieter, so keep expectations flexible after Thursday.

Daily Chase Recommendations

Each day's snowfall range combines the previous night (4 pm-8 am) and that day (8 am-4 pm). Winds look strongest late Monday into Tuesday, so prioritize terrain that holds snow well during the peak. Snow ratios climb through midweek, so quality improves on Wednesday and Thursday.

• Monday: Kirkwood at 13-20 inches or Sugar Bowl at 11-17 inches, with moderate-density snow and breezy ridgelines.

• Tuesday: Mammoth at 22-38 inches for fluffy snow or Kirkwood at 22-37 inches for deep coverage, with strong upper-mountain winds impacting exposed terrain.

• Wednesday: Mammoth at 15-27 inches or Sugar Bowl at 11-20 inches, with fluffy to blower snow and better preservation as the cold air deepens.
• Thursday: Kirkwood at 7-13 inches of blower snow on top of a deep base, with winds easing compared to Tuesday.

Extended Outlook

After Thursday, the longer-range guidance keeps storm chances on the table, and it also opens the door to a quieter break for a time late in the period. Some solutions bring another round of snow late in the window, while others keep totals closer to a few inches, so plan around the Sunday through Thursday storm and treat anything after as a bonus.

The broader pattern continues to favor colder-than-normal air and above-normal precipitation across Northern California heading into next week, which keeps more powder opportunities in play even as the details stay fluid.