Trump facing bleak future as GOP 'retirement caucus' defections grow beyond his control

Following a pair of losses in the House where a smattering of Republican lawmakers joined with Democrats to push back against Donald Trump initiatives that are near and dear to his heart, the president can expect more blows to his agenda according to GOP House members.

According to Politico reporter Meredith Lee Hill, Republicans' razor-thin House majority leaves them vulnerable to coordinated opposition. Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE) and Rep. Tom Massie (R-KY) both highlighted how the narrow GOP margin magnifies the impact of defections.

Hill noted, "Thanks to the thin margins in both chambers—especially the House—a few steel-spined lawmakers can have an outsized impact. That's a change from the dynamics in Trump's first term, when many House Republicans weren't fully on board with the president's MAGA agenda, but the GOP had a much larger majority to work with."

Massie, a frequent Trump critic, contended he needs to persuade only one or two Republican colleagues to constrain the president's initiatives. This dynamic frustrates GOP leadership committed to supporting Trump.

Bacon acknowledged that some colleagues "live in fear" of Trump retaliation, but they are increasingly grumbling behind the scenes. Massie predicted further defections as members complete their primary campaigns: "The retirement caucus is growing. Once we get past March, April, and May, which contain a large portion of their Republican primaries, I think you're going to see more defections."

Speaker Mike Johnson faces constant pressure maintaining party unity. He can currently afford to lose only a single GOP member on party-line votes. While upcoming special elections may slightly improve his position, the House Republican majority will likely remain extremely narrow.

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