Bangladesh After The Ballot: Change, Anxiety And The Return Of Old Forces – OpEd
The result of Bangladesh’s parliamentary election surprised few observers who had followed the country’s turbulent politics over the past two years. However, the scale of the outcome still carried drama. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has returned to power with a strong mandate, while Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami (Jamaat) has emerged as a major parliamentary force. The Awami League, once dominant under Sheikh Hasina, stood outside the contest, weighed down by public anger and political isolation. The election therefore opened a new phase in Bangladesh’s political life, even though it revived traditional actors rather than introducing a fresh order.
BNP’s victory came from organisation, networks and voter calculation rather than ideological enthusiasm. The party relied on its rural structures, long-standing patronage systems and familiar candidates who enjoy local influence. Many voters supported BNP because they believed it would form the government and, therefore, bring access to services and resources. Tarique Rahman’s leadership also mattered. His return from exile energised the party, restored discipline and helped it present itself as the main vehicle of change after the fall of Sheikh Hasina.
Nonetheless the victory raises difficult questions too. Tarique Rahman enters office with a controversial record, including corruption allegations and charges of benefiting from family influence during his mother Khaleda Zia’s rule. His promises to restore democratic institutions and rebuild governance will be judged against Bangladesh’s history, where parties have often adopted centralised power once in office. The youth who led the uprising that removed Hasina have made their expectations clear. They seek jobs, accountability and fair economic growth. They have also shown a readiness to mobilise again if the new government fails them.
The other striking outcome of the election is the rise of Jamaat-e-Islami. Jamaat secured a level of parliamentary representation unseen in decades. Its success indicates organised grassroots work, strong social networks and its ability to draw support from voters disillusioned with local corruption. In several areas, Jamaat appeared to many as a cleaner option compared with established parties.
This growth has wider implications. Jamaat’s manifesto during the campaign stressed development and governance, and it avoided overt religious language. But its ideological position remains rooted in political Islam, and its historical stance during the 1971 Liberation War still influences public perceptions. The party’s expanding presence will influence debates on identity, education and law. It may also shift the tone of national politics, especially if it uses its parliamentary strength to push cultural and institutional agendas aligned with its worldview.
The new parliament also includes younger actors such as the National Citizens Party, born out of the protest movement. Their presence shows a desire among sections of society for alternatives beyond the traditional BNP-Awami rivalry. Still, the electoral system favours large parties, which limits the space for smaller reform-oriented forces.
The incoming government faces immediate constitutional and institutional questions. Discussions around a national charter and proposals for referendums on governance reforms indicate the demand for a new political contract. The success of such initiatives will depend on transparency and public participation. Any attempt to use these mechanisms to centralise power could deepen mistrust. Bangladesh’s political history shows that reforms announced with great promise can fade once power consolidates in Dhaka.
To understand this election fully, one must return to the transition that began with the agitation that toppled Sheikh Hasina. The protests started with anger over a job quota system favouring families linked to the liberation struggle. They soon gathered strength from broader grievances. Young graduates faced shrinking opportunities. Many citizens felt excluded from economic growth. Reports of corruption, media control and human-rights abuses had already undermined the government’s legitimacy.
The state’s response intensified the crisis. Curfews, internet shutdowns and heavy policing widened public anger. As violence spread, the military stepped in and Hasina eventually left the country. Her departure marked the end of one of the longest political tenures in South Asia. She left behind a mixed legacy of infrastructure expansion and economic growth alongside deep concerns about democratic erosion.
The interim administration led by Muhammad Yunus attempted to steer the country through a difficult period. Yunus emphasised reconciliation, economic discipline and institutional repair. His government allowed political prisoners to be released and opened space for opposition forces to organise. At the same time, austerity measures tied to the IMF programme continued, which kept economic pressures high. Yunus’s leadership projected moderation and moral authority, but his administration struggled with law-and-order challenges and rising political contestation.
The election, therefore, closed one chapter of transition while opening another. The challenge now lies in governance. Bangladesh’s economy requires job creation, price stability and investment confidence. Its institutions need independence and credibility. Public trust will depend on whether the government avoids the concentration of power that marked earlier administrations.
Another urgent concern relates to minorities. Reports of attacks on Hindu communities, Ahmadis and Sufi shrines during the transition period created anxiety across the country. The history of BNP and Jamaat governments includes periods when minority groups felt vulnerable, particularly during political unrest. The new administration must demonstrate through policy and policing that equal citizenship will remain a guiding principle. Failure in this area could damage Bangladesh’s social fabric and international reputation.
Women’s representation also remains limited. The protest movement saw strong female participation, but electoral politics still underrepresents them. Reserved seats in parliament offer one route to improvement, though parties must ensure that these positions go to capable leaders rather than symbolic appointees.
The election’s impact will also extend beyond Bangladesh’s borders. Relations with India are likely to enter a cautious phase. New Delhi enjoyed close cooperation with Sheikh Hasina on security and connectivity. Under BNP governments in the past, India often worried about cross-border militancy and political rhetoric directed against it. Tarique Rahman’s statements in early 2025 on water sharing and transit agreements indicate a firmer nationalist tone in foreign policy. In fact, BNP’s anti-Indianism was too well-known. Rahman’s call to review agreements with India shows a desire to sustain independence from the previous administration’s approach. Such a stance could bring renegotiations on river water sharing, border management and connectivity projects. India may respond with pragmatism, seeking stability rather than confrontation. Economic interdependence between the two countries remains strong, which may encourage moderation on both sides.
Relations with Pakistan and China will also draw attention. During the interim period, Dhaka showed signs of warming ties with Islamabad. China’s economic presence in infrastructure and finance continues to expand. The new government may pursue a balanced foreign policy that draws benefits from all partners while emphasising national autonomy. This approach could widen Bangladesh’s strategic options, though it may also increase regional competition.
For South Asia, Bangladesh’s political course means many things. The country is at the crossroads of the Bay of Bengal region, linking India’s northeast, Myanmar and the broader Indo-Pacific. Political stability in Dhaka supports trade routes, migration management and regional security. Instability, on the other hand, could invite external influence and strain neighbourhood relations.
The electoral verdicts underlines both continuity and change. Traditional parties like BNP dominate the political stage, and the social forces that pushed for transformation remain active. Young voters, civil-society groups and grassroots movements have already shown their capacity to influence events. Their expectations will determine the success or failure of the new government.