'Black Swan' author Nassim Taleb says brace for software bankruptcies and for recent stock gains to be 'eradicated'

• Author Nassim Taleb says AI will lead to bankruptcies among software firms.
• He predicted that stock gains among the market leaders of the last few years with be "eradicated."
• Taleb said that pioneering companies are not usually the most successful and are often overtaken.

A top statistician and markets commentator thinks more pain is coming from the AI-fueled wave of panic that's shaken the tech sector.

Nassim Taleb, the author of "The Black Swan" and an advisor at Universa Investments, said he believes the disruption will materially affect software firms and will "definitely" lead to bankruptcies in the space.

Moreover, Taleb predicts that the gains among the market leaders of the last few years will be erased as the next crop of winners emerge.

"The previous rally we had was driven by a very small number of names. And now we'll probably have some broadening effects and redistribution, but a lot of the gains in the stock market are going to be eradicated by that," he said in an interview on Bloomberg TV.

The AI scare trade has been in full focus lately as new AI products and updates pummel software stocks. The sell-off in recent weeks has also spilled over to sectors ike trucking, wealth management, and insurers.

Taleb used a historical analogy to further illustrate his take on the tech sector, noting that pioneering companies are not necessarily the most successful in the long run. He cited the automotive and airline industries as examples, as well as the original PC makers.

"I'm sure someone's going to make a lot of money in both software and hardware related to AI, but [that] doesn't necessarily have to be these companies because you have a lot of instability," Taleb added.

As Black Swan events are, by definition, phenomena that no one sees coming, Taleb could not speculate on what the next one will be. However, that doesn't mean he believes the US market isn't facing major risk as AI disruption continues.

Taleb said that while the market may be behaving as if extreme crashes are unlikely, this isn't the case, and investors shouldn't be lulled into a false sense of security.

"I would say the tail risks across all sectors are underpriced," he said. "So it's not the risk of drawdown in the stock market, it's a risk of large drawdown."