Split emotions on the economy aren’t just a California thing

California consumers remain deeply concerned about their economic future but feel somewhat satisfied with current business conditions.

My trusty spreadsheet’s review of the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for February showed a slight decline in Golden State optimism from revised January figures. The index, based on consumer surveys, dates to 2007.

But let’s take a longer-term peek. By this math, Californians’ overall confidence in February was 9% below the average optimism shown over 20 years of index data.

Historically, this yardstick of shoppers’ financial emotions reflects sharply divided opinions about the economy.

The index is made up of two factors: one measures views on current economic conditions, the other gauges sentiment about what’s next.

The index suggests Californians are relatively content with today’s economy. February’s “present situation” index for California was 7% above the norm since 2007.

Conversely, Golden Staters have gloomy visions of the future. The statewide “expectations” index is running 21% below par.

Major questions

This divergence is a common story across a wide range of economic statistics in 2026.

Some gurus speak of a “K-shaped” economy – up for the well-to-do, down for those with thinner wallets. Other analysts see a “vibecession” where the mood is worse than the data.

Ponder California. The economy is cooling, but it hasn’t collapsed. Layoffs are noteworthy but modest. Pay raises are smaller but still exist. And inflation isn’t cured, but it has slowed.

Still, you cannot overlook major monetary questions – especially for folks struggling to pay their bills.

How will the Trump administration’s unorthodox economic policies – more domestically focused than California’s more global orientation – play out? Or what will new technologies – namely, artificial intelligence – mean for the job market?

Or who’ll be the next governor, and how will that political change hit my wallet?

Not just here

This split view of the economy is not uniquely Californian.

The overall U.S. consumer confidence for February was 1% below a 20-year average, with a similar split in timing – 13% above par for the present situation, but 13% below par for expectations.

Look, shopper psyche is critical to economic success. Consumer activity is roughly two-thirds of all economic activity.

If shoppers collectively lose confidence, they might reduce their spending. That kind of thriftiness can worsen many economic headaches.

Skittish spenders are likely behind recently sluggish sales of high-priced goods such as houses and vehicles.

Other stately views

Contemplate this chasm in the what’s now vs. what’s next thinking among the seven other big states tracked by the Conference Board.

Consumers in four states had divided views, like those in California and the nation …

– Texas 4% below average overall – 3% above par presently, but 10% below par expectations.

– Michigan 0.4% below average overall – 23% above par presently, but 20% below par expectations.

– Illinois 2% above average overall – 27% above par presently, but 18% below par expectations.

– Ohio 15% above average overall – 42% above par presently, but 8% below par expectations.

Shoppers in three states, however, seem relatively pleased with both today’s economy and the outlook …

– Florida 24% above average overall – 40% above par presently and 11% above par expectations.

– Pennsylvania 17% above average overall – 34% above par presently and 2% above par expectations.

– New York 7% above average overall – 14% above par presently and 2% above par expectations.

Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com