Here are 2 things for investors to be on the lookout for in Trump's State of the Union
Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters
- Trump will address the nation in the first official State of the Union of his second term.
- Comments from the president on tariff policy or an escalation in Iran could impact markets.
- The president is expected to highlight affordability and the state of the US economy.
Donald Trump will deliver the first official State of the Union address of his term on Tuesday and there are a few things investors should be listening for that could move markets.
The State of the Union isn't typically a market-moving event, but uncertainty around Trump's tariff regime following the Supreme Court's ruling and ongoing geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran mean investors are looking for signals of what's next from the president.
"This is usually a non-market moving event and shouldn't cause a ripple effect on Wall St., with the speech telegraphed with little surprise or fanfare. However, the one constant under President Trump is that we can predict the unpredictable," Freedom Capital Markets chief market strategist Jay Woods said ahead Tuesday evening's address.
The remarks are expected to be highly watched, with a poll from Scripps News/Talker Research finding that two-thirds of Americans see this State of the Union address as more important than previous years.
Here is what investors should be keeping on their radar during Trump's speech.
Tariff updates
SCOTUS ruled that the majority of Trump's tariffs are illegal, finding that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act doesn't justify the import duties.
Trump doubled down, lifting global tariffs to 15% using alternative frameworks to justify his trade war.
Legal battles around tariffs are expected to continue, leaving investors without a clear picture of what's to come. In particular, the fight over tariff rebates for companies may just getting started.
Any comments from Trump about his trade plans could reshape Wall Street's expectations and move stocks.
"In his speech we might learn more of his intent to continue to levy tariffs despite the SCOTUS decision," Woods said, adding that these comments could impact markets.
Signs of escalation in Iran
Oil prices have been volatile amid tensions between the US and Iran.
Woods says that if Trump were to indicate an escalation of war against Iran, it could move markets.
The US has been building up its military presence in the Middle East. Updates from Trump about the US presence in Iran could add to volatility in the oil market, putting pressure on a key input for inflation.
Affordability in focus
It might be less of a market-moving update than tariffs or military action against Iran, but Trump is also expected to harp on the economy and his push to make life more affordable for everyday Americans.
The US economy has avoided what many feared would be the worst case scenario under some of his policies, but worries persist.
Almost half of Americans are most interested in what Trump says about the economy, the Scripps News/Talker Research poll showed.
Comments from Trump about the economy could impact investor perception on inflation and the labor market, which could change expectations for the timing of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.