Will El Niño Finally Return in 2026?

When El Niño is in full effect, it can mean more powerful surf for the US West Coast, Hawaii and beyond. With the last major El Niño event a few years ago now, ending in April 2024 – are we about to see a winter under fire from this climate anomaly?

The circumstances surrounding an El Niño are many. It is sparked with a chain reaction of events that feed into each other. To understand El Niño, it's important to know about the ENSO cycle. This is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle, which is where the sea surface temperatures in the South Pacific are either cooling (known as La Niña) or warming up (which is El Niño). There's also a middle-phase known as ENSO neutral, where the water is neither warming or cooling. At the moment, the ENSO cycle is in the La Niña phase. This rotation of warm and cool waters is not something you can time but generally fluctuates every few-to-seven years.

Generally speaking, El Niño means bigger more consistent swells for the US and La Niña means less consistent surf. During La Niña years, there is more high-pressure in the atmosphere that can block storms from reaching the coastline. For Austalia though, La Niña can see more easterly swell fill in, which could lead to better surf.

What Causes El Niño

“The first indicators of an El Niño season are the weakening of the trade winds in the South Pacific,” said surf forecaster Tony Butt. “When they weaken, it allows the water to warm up, creating a warm pool of water. This then starts to drift across the Pacific and eventually up towards Japan.

“This warm water significantly alters the jetstream, and impacts circulation patterns. Essentially, it can pull the jetstream south, which will then alter storm tracks in the Pacific.”

With the jetstream shifted, it can mke a path for storms to head towards the US and Hawaii. During El Niño years, these storms can become more powerful and intense – and can sometimes over-power coastlines.

“Right now, it's probably a bit too early to call with any definitive answer,” said Tony. “This is because, the weakening trade winds – the first indicator of El Niño – usually occurs in the spring-time, around April. Once we see that weakening, it will take months for this to actually happen, likely in place for the 2026 winter, if it's going to happen at all.”

Is It Happening This Year?

There are other under-lying factors here too that could help spot an El Niño season even before the trade-winds begin to slow down.

Earlier this month, NOAA published their latest ENSO-status, which takes a look at the transitional phase of the cycle as it is right now. According to them, if the cycle continues as is, we're in for a 50-60% chance of an El Niño season, though emphasised it's still too early to say with confidence what will happen.

“A transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is expected in February-April 2026 (60% chance), with ENSO-neutral likely persisting through the Northern Hemisphere summer (56% chance in June-August 2026),” the report reads.

“The equatorial subsurface temperature index (average from 180°-100°W) significantly increased, reflecting the strengthening and expansion of above-average subsurface temperatures across the Pacific Ocean.

“Atmospheric anomalies weakened due to subseasonal variability, but still reflected aspects of La Niña. Low-level westerly wind anomalies were present over the western equatorial Pacific, and upper-level westerly wind anomalies continued across the east-central equatorial Pacific. Suppressed convection was weakly evident near the Date Line and over the equatorial Maritime Continent, with enhanced convection located off the equator.

“The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) average, including the NCEP CFSv2, the onset of ENSO-neutral in February-April 2026. The team consensus also reflects this outcome, with ENSO-neutral persisting through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2026. For the late summer and beyond, there is a 50-60% chance of El Niño forming, though model uncertainty remains considerable and forecasts made this time of year tend to have lower accuracy.”

As for past El Niño events, NOAA noted the 1997/1998 season as one of the strongest in history: “Two major El Niño events, 1982/1983 and 1997/1998, have both proven to be record breaking years in producing some of the strongest North Pacific fall and winter storms that have brought the largest and most consistent surf to the U.S. West Coast,” they said. “The most important forcing mechanism is wind, and the second is fetch (representing the continuous, unimpeded distance over which the wind is felt by the ocean) Fetch is a function of distance, but it’s also a function of a storm’s horizontal coverage area and translational velocity.

“These strong El Niño events provided the subtropical fuel needed to create a steady source of baroclinic instability (i.e., when strong horizontal temperature gradients intersect with strong pressure gradients), which facilitates persistent convective energy (i.e., exchange of warm and cold air masses that lead to winds, clouds, and weather) over much of the Central and North Pacific.

“Both these past and present El Niño events have contributed to convective energy that has been observed to propagate all the way into the interior of the U.S. and as far as the US East Coast, particularly affecting regions along the coastlines of the Gulf of Mexico. Greater baroclinic instability coupled with persistent convective energy during a strong winter El Niño means both a higher frequency and a higher intensity of storms, thus translating to a relatively rare and epic time where one can observe some of the largest and most consistent surf observed in the North Pacific region.”

Notable Rides During the Last El Niño

During the last El Niño, the swell of the decade roared into Maverick's on December 28, 2023. There were a few notable rides, but San Diego's Jojo Roper was one of the stand-outs. Jojo towed into a thick-lipped Mav's bomb, outside of the usual take-off zone and scored one of the most intense barrels out there that day.

The month before, in November of the same year, teen Steve Roberson opened the winter season with a wild Jaws ride with zero hesitation. This young gun has spent his early years studying Jaws, before finally deciding it was his time to head out there.

You may recall Molly Picklum's Pipeline performance in February 2024, one of the most incredible performances out there. But it was Caity Simmers' now famous quote: “Pipeline's for the fucking girls,” that went down in quotable history.

We'll be updating this piece as the climate drivers continue to evolve. Stay tuned!