What changes for Italy if Iran do not attend 2026 World Cup?

Reports across Europe claim that Iran are increasingly likely to miss out on the upcoming FIFA World Cup in North America, but what does this mean for Italy, who are yet to secure a spot in the final tournament? 

Over the weekend, the United States and Israel launched a military operation against Iran, which has since led to a series of retaliatory strikes across the Middle East. 

The ongoing conflict makes it unlikely that Iran will feature at the upcoming 2026 World Cup, which will be co-hosted by the United States. 

“With what happened… and with that attack by the United States, it is unlikely that we can look forward to the World Cup, but the sports chiefs are the ones who must decide on that,” said Mehdi Taj, head of Iran’s football federation (via BBC Sport).

According to updates from the BBC, FIFA still expects Iran to take part in the upcoming World Cup, for which they have already qualified, but rumours of a potential boycott continue to circulate. 

What would happen to Italy if Iran boycotts 2026 World Cup?

Iran have already qualified directly for the 2026 World Cup and have been drawn into Group G along with Belgium, Egypt and New Zealand. 

Italy, meanwhile, have not secured a spot at the upcoming World Cup, and will instead have to go through the play-off system if they are to qualify. 

Gennaro Gattuso’s Azzurri will take on Northern Ireland in Bergamo on March 26 in the World Cup play-off semi-final, and the winner of that tie will go on to face either Wales or Bosnia away from home in a one-legged decider for a spot in the final tournament. 

Italy are the highest-ranked nation in the world (13th) that does not have a spot at the World Cup locked down. 

If Iran decides to boycott the World Cup,  a spot in the group stages will open up. If there is a boycott this summer, Italy are not expected to benefit directly, though. 

That is because Iran’s spot would go to the next-best team from the Asian (AFC) qualifying system, instead of the highest-ranked team worldwide. In this scenario, Iraq would claim a spot in the World Cup group stages. 

Iraq are still in with a chance of qualifying of their own right and are currently expected to take part in the intercontinental play-offs at the end of March. If Iraq were handed a spot in the World Cup group stages, the UAE would take their place in the intercontinental play-offs instead.