All Eyes On The Senate Race In Texas Primary Election

The road to the midterms begins today as primary elections get underway in Texas, North Carolina, and Arkansas. We’ve already taken a look at what’s at stake in North Carolina’s primary, and now we’re going down to the Lone Star State, where Democrats have a surprisingly competitive Senate race shaping up. 

According to the New York Times, the race for the Republican Senate nomination is very likely to go to a runoff. The race is between four-term incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, and Wesley Hunt, a two-term congressman from Houston. Texas has a 50% rule, under which a primary candidate must receive 50% of the vote to secure the nomination. The race is largely expected to come down to Cornyn and Paxton, with Hunt getting enough share of the vote to force a runoff between the two. 

The battle between Cornyn and Paxton represents the ideological divide between where the Republican Party used to be and the more MAGA-fied strain that’s overtaken it. Despite Cornyn largely voting in favor of Trump policies, Paxton has successfully framed Cornyn as a RINO, or Republican In Name Only. The Washington Post reports that Cornyn has dramatically outspent Paxton but is still trailing him in the polls. 

On the Democrat side of the equation, the race is between Rep. Jasmine Crockett, who is running for Senate after the Texas redistricting effort essentially forced her out of her seat, and State Rep. James Talarico. The two have very different styles that represent the conflicting directions the Democratic Party could take, not only in the midterms but also in the 2028 election. 

Talarico has made his faith a centerpiece of his candidacy and promotes a “politics of love” that seeks to bring in swing voters and Republicans who may be tired of the MAGA way of doing things. “My faith teaches me that love is the strongest force in the universe,” he told the audience at a recent campaign event. “There is a deep hunger for a different kind of politics. Not a politics of hate, or fear, or division, but a politics of love.”

Crockett has gained national recognition for her willingness to verbally spar with Republicans in Congress and has positioned herself as a fighter. “We are in the fight for our lives,” she told a group of pastors at a campaign event. “People can take a chance on somebody that says that they will fight – or they can go with a proven fighter.” Polling has the two virtually tied, with a genuine chance that the race also goes into a runoff. 

Democrats also have momentum on their side, as the Times reports that over 1.3 million Democrats have already cast their ballots during the early voting period. “It’s off the charts in terms of primary turnout,” said Mark P. Jones, a political science professor at Rice University, told the Times. 

There is hope among Democratic analysts that Paxton wins the Republican nomination, as both Crockett and Talarico are polling ahead of him. This is the first time in decades that the Texas Senate seat held by Cornyn has a legitimate chance of being flipped by Democrats. 

Personally, I wouldn’t be surprised if Crockett locks the nomination and even wins in November. Simply because the last six years have seen Democrats focus more on swing and center-right Republicans, and you know where that got us? A second Trump presidency, compounded by Republican control of Congress. 

These midterms are consequential not just for the prospect of a Congress that could restrain Trump, but also for determining the direction the Democratic Party needs to go in. Usually, a historically unpopular president would mean more positive marks for the opposition party, but the opposite has happened. Democratic voters (present company included) distrust both the president and the Democratic Party to work in their best interests. Call the Democratic Party Ben Simmons, the way they can’t even hit a layup. 

If candidates like Crockett and North Carolina’s Nida Allam succeed in both the primaries and the midterm election, it would show the DNC that the best way to energize left-wing voters is, shocker, to pitch left-wing policies and stand up to the bootleg authoritarian in office. 

SEE ALSO:

John Cornyn And Ken Paxton Fight Dirty Over US Senate Seat

Why Jasmine Crockett’s Senate Run Just Threw Texas Into Chaos