Marin needs more housing to grow economy, analyst says

Economist Christopher Thornberg says Marin County is in a “tough spot.” Its economy has not significantly grown in the past six years; its labor force is shrinking; and it has insufficient housing for workers.

However, Marin has the eighth highest median income of all counties in the United States, Thornberg noted. The county’s median income was $149,091 in 2024, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

“It’s one of the richest places in the country. Incomes for people who live there continue to rise,” Thornberg said. “For those who live there it’s great; for those who want to live there, it’s tough.”

Thornberg, founder of the Los Angeles research firm Beacon Economics, shared his observations during a 2026 economic forecast event held by the San Rafael Chamber of Commerce on Feb. 18. He delivered the keynote address.

Thornberg advised the audience, which included county and municipal leaders, to have conversations about growing the economy by adding more housing. He argued that the lack of new housing is causing a dearth in labor force growth and holding back Marin’s economic potential.

“You have the power to change things in Marin County, but you have to shift the narrative to allow a change in policy,” he said.

Using county data, he showed that Marin County’s housing stock of 113,062 residences increased by just 1.6% in the past 10 years. California’s housing stock rose by 7.3% in the past decade.

Thornberg said the median house price in Marin is $1.6 million, lower than the $1.9 million in Santa Clara County. He stressed that the price of a house does not necessarily reflect a community’s income.

“It reflects the income of a person who wants to live in that community,” he said. “Only a tiny group of people have the opportunity to buy in this wonderful place. That tiny group of people have one feature common to all of them: They’re rich.”

Thornberg presented data that displayed Marin’s economic challenges. The county’s employment force has fallen by 6% since 2020. Its real gross domestic product adjusted for price changes increased by 0.8% in a five-year period and was reported as $29 billion in 2024.

The number of Marin residents who earned between $25,000 and $49,000 has declined 25% since 2019. Meanwhile, the number of Marin households earning more than $150,000 rose by 22% in the same period.

Thornberg noted that Marin County’s proximity to San Francisco puts it next to one of the state’s larger jobs hubs. He presented a chart showing that more than 16,400 Marin County residents commuted to San Francisco last year. In the same year, 8,855 Sonoma County residents commuted to jobs in Marin. More than 6,600 Contra Costa County residents and about 3,400 Solano County residents commuted to Marin.

“This is a problem,” Thornberg said. “You’re not competing for housing with the local labor demand.”

Following the presentation, Karen Strolia, the president and chief executive officer of the San Rafael Chamber of Commerce, said the reality of Marin’s household incomes is more complex. She said a high median income “can mask the simultaneous presence of extreme wealth and deep poverty.”

Strolia said some households are “one unexpected expense away from displacement” because of the high cost of living.

“The ‘Marin is a rich county’ shorthand isn’t wrong in one sense, but it’s incomplete,” she said.

Strolia addressed Thornberg’s call for Marin to create more housing.

“That pressure is felt across Marin — not only by employers trying to recruit and retain talent, but by older adults on fixed incomes, college graduates who want to move back home without moving back in with their parents, first-time homebuyers and working families who are getting squeezed,” she said.

The event on Marin’s economic forecast for the year was held as officials head into budget preparation season.

“We know from the data and our lived experience that Marin remains a fantastic community that people want to live, grow and thrive in, and we have work to do to make sure we meet our goals for housing, economy and community vitality,” said Marin County Executive Derek Johnson. “The forecast affirms that.”