Nobel Prize winner flags one win that could 'blaze trail for Democrats in deep red states'
The chances of Texas turning blue at the next election are greater than ever before, but a key issue must be overcome, according to one prize-winning analyst.
Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman believes the state could see a wave of swing voters opt for Democratic Party candidate James Talarico. The Presbyterian minister beat Jasmine Crockett in the primaries and will face off against the Republican Party's pick, either John Cornyn or Ken Paxton.
Neither GOP candidate, Krugman believes, has much of a chance at uniting their party, but Talarico faces an uphill battle in getting swing voters on his side. The economist, writing in his Substack, explained why the Democratic Party may still fall short of turning Texas blue.
He wrote, "I don’t mean to say that Democrats have no chance of turning Texas blue. While Texas has mainly had extensive growth rather than rapid growth in productivity or per capita income, it has been transformed in one important respect: It’s now home to not one but two world-class metropolitan hubs in Houston and Dallas.
"Indeed, the maturing of those metropolises is certainly the main reason that Texas has become more culturally and professionally sophisticated.
"The only other red state with comparable metropolitan depth is Georgia, which I’ve circled along with Texas in the chart. Georgia has Atlanta — and Georgia, which has a similar education level to Texas, has become a genuine swing state.
"The rise of Texas urbanism hasn’t yet altered the outcomes of state-level races, in which Republicans have had a lock on power. But, as in Georgia, that could change."
Krugman went on to suggest that, even with the tide turning in the Democratic Party's favor, it would still be an uphill battle to win a majority.
"So the point here is that while Texas could be shifting towards the blue zone, it won’t come easily," Krugman warned. "It won’t be a simple matter of a state becoming more progressive as a result of economic progress.
"In other words, Texas is not about to become New Jersey, or even Colorado. But with the right Democratic candidates, who can straddle the divide between urban Democrats and non-urban Republicans, it could become Georgia. And maybe, just maybe, Texas could blaze the trail for Democrats in other deep red states."