Why War In Iran Is The Last Thing Starmer Needs As Voters Prepare To Seal His Fate

Towards the end of the third and final part of Channel 4′s ‘The Tony Blair Story’, the former prime minister once again defends his decision to take the UK to war in Iraq.

“I can’t think of another British prime minister who also wouldn’t have wanted to be with America post-9/11,” he says.

Given the events of the past week, it is worth considering whether Blair has now revised that view.

Keir Starmer, the first Labour leader to win a general election since Blair did it for a third time in 2005, decided he did not want to “be with America” when Donald Trump sought permission to use British bases to launch missiles at Iran.

The prime minister doubts the legality of the military action, and is unconvinced that the US president has any plan at all for what comes next.

Starmer only relented when Iran began attacking other countries in the region, putting 300,000 British lives at risk.

And even then, the PM made clear that the US can only use British bases to carry out “defensive” operations targeting weapons storage facilities and missile launch sites.

In comments which could have been specifically chosen to anger Tony Blair, Starmer said: “We all remember the mistakes of Iraq. And we have learned those lessons.

“We were not involved in the initial strikes on Iran, and we will not join offensive action now.”

Trump – who Starmer had been relatively successful in wooing since he returned to the White House – has made clear to any journalist who will listen how furious he is at the PM’s approach.

“This is not Winston Churchill that we’re dealing with,” the president mockingly told reporters in the Oval Office.

Starmer may feel reassured by a YouGov poll published on Thursday which showed that just 8% of the country believe the UK should be “actively joining the US and Israel” in bombing Iran.

Just under half – 46% – say Britain should restrict itself to shooting down drones, defending civilian areas and UK military facilities, which is in line with the government’s own approach.

Around a quarter – 26% – say the UK response should be “retaliatory only, attacking military targets that have launched attacks against civilian areas and/or British military targets”.

However, when asked how the PM is handling the crisis, 47% say badly, with just 34% saying well.

The same poll found that 52% of voters think Starmer is handling his relationship with Trump badly, with just 32% supporting his approach.

Predictably, Starmer has been attacked by the Greens for getting involved in the war at all, and by Reform and the Tories for not being more supportive of Trump.

A senior Labour source told HuffPost UK: “There are three competing choices in front of the British public currently.

“The Greens, who are making the case that our government should sit on our hands and do nothing to protect ourselves, even while 300,000 UK nationals and our allies are under threat.

“Reform and the Tories, who are essentially arguing we should sub-contract our foreign policy to, at best, an ill-defined and escalating war. 

“Or this Labour government, who are clear that we’re defending British nationals and interests as part of our collective self defence.”

A minister, not normally one of the PM’s biggest fans, said Starmer’s handling of the war so far had been “measured, responsible and rooted in the national interest”.

By comparison, the minister said, the more gung-ho Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage have “lost the plot”.

Another normally-critical Labour MP said: “To be fair to the prime minister, he’s handled it pretty well. But he’s at the mercy of events.”

According to The Spectator, the PM is also at the mercy of his own cabinet.

While he and defence secretary John Healey wanted to let America use British bases at the outset of the war, he was effectively blocked by Rachel Reeves, Yvette Cooper, Shabana Mahmood and, most vociferously, Ed Miliband.

A senior member of the cabinet told HuffPost UK that the unpredictability of war means that the PM is not in control of his own destiny.

“I think Keir is where the country is at the moment, which is not where the right wing press are,” he said.

“Things could change very quickly, of course, if British citizens start getting killed.”

Chris Hopkins, political research director at pollsters Savanta UK, said the PM is unlikely to enjoy any war bounce in his subterranean approval ratings, regardless of Trump’s own unpopularity with the British public.

He said: “Unfortunately for Keir Starmer, the public are far more likely to simply agree with Donald Trump’s assessment of the prime minister than sympathise with him.

“Even a broken clock is right twice a day, and I think the public are more likely to feel Trump has given an accurate assessment than leap to the Labour leader’s defence.”

Luke Tryl, director of the More in Common think-tank, said the PM’s popularity may marginally improve, but any boost will be short-lived.

“My hunch is he gets a small but not sustained ‘rally round’ bump, which helps him consolidate on the left,” he said. “I’d be most watching his approval with Lib Dems, which I suspect goes up most.”

Starmer admitted on Thursday that the war “could continue for some time”, an unwelcome distraction for a PM whose fate will more than likely be decided by the outcome of crucial elections across the UK in just two months’ time.

The PM’s determination to provide “calm, level-headed leadership in the national interest” will cut little ice with voters who appear determined to punish Labour for their multiple failures since taking office in 2024.

Few are likely to disagree with Trump’s assessment that Starmer is no Churchill.

But it is the prime minister’s failure to emulate the election-winning genius of Tony Blair which will ultimately seal his fate.