Air travel demand remained strong in January despite holiday calendar shift

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) this week released data on global passenger demand for January 2026, showing continued growth in air travel, with demand rising 3.8 per cent year-on-year despite calendar effects linked to the timing of the Lunar New Year.

According to the data, total demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPK), increased by 3.8 per cent compared with January 2025, while total capacity, measured in available seat kilometres (ASK), rose by 3.5 per cent year-on-year.

As a result, the global load factor reached 82 per cent, up 0.2 percentage points, marking a record high for January.

Looking specifically at international travel, international demand rose by 5.9 per cent compared with January 2025, while capacity increased by 5.8 per cent year-on-year. In this context, the international load factor reached 82.5 per cent, up 0.1 percentage points, also representing a record January level.

By contrast, domestic demand increased only marginally, rising by 0.1 per cent compared with January 2025, while capacity declined by 0.4 per cent year-on-year.

Nevertheless, the domestic load factor improved to 81.2 per cent, up 0.4 percentage points, another record high for the month of January.

However, IATA noted that January’s demand figures were affected by the shift in the Lunar New Year holiday, which occurred in January in 2025 but falls in February in 2026.

As the association explained, the Lunar New Year typically drives a surge in travel demand as families reconnect to celebrate the holiday, meaning that the year-on-year comparison makes January 2026 demand appear somewhat weaker than it actually is.

Commenting on the data, IATA Director General Willie Walsh said that the timing of the holiday partly explains the slower expansion recorded in January, while also stressing that the underlying outlook for the year remains strong.

“The timing of the Lunar New Year partly explains the slightly slower 3.8 per cent expansion in January,” Walsh said, adding that the fundamentals remain in place for demand to continue growing strongly in 2026.

He also pointed to industry schedule data, which indicate a 5.2 per cent increase in global seat capacity by March, a development he said would represent the fastest expansion since April 2024.

At the same time, Walsh warned that recent geopolitical developments could introduce uncertainty into the outlook for both passenger traffic and fuel costs.

“Events over the weekend have, however, introduced some uncertainty into the evolution of traffic and fuel costs,” he said, adding that the industry hopes for an early peaceful resolution to the current hostilities.

“In the meantime,” Walsh added, it is critical that states respect their obligation to keep civilians, and civil aviation free from harm.

Looking further ahead, Walsh also noted that average air fares are expected to decline in real terms during 2026, continuing what he described as a long-term trend toward more affordable air travel.

“Average fares are expected to fall in real terms over the course of 2026,” he said, adding that this trend persists despite continuing cost pressures across the industry.

These pressures include, he explained, rising infrastructure charges, regulatory burdens and the growing cost of the aviation sector’s energy transition.

Against this backdrop, Walsh also pointed to a structural development in the industry, noting that 2025 recorded the slowest rate of new airline start-ups since 1999.

“In the face of these cost and regulatory pressures, it is notable that 2025 saw the slowest rate of new airline start-ups since 1999,” he said.

According to Walsh, governments that value competition in aviation should view this trend as a warning signal.

“Governments who value competition should consider this a canary in the coal mine,” he said, adding that cost and regulatory pressures must be addressed to protect the consumer benefits of connectivity.

In terms of regional trends, international passenger demand increased by 5.9 per cent year-on-year in January, with all regions recording growth, although the pace of expansion slowed in some markets, particularly in Asia-Pacific, largely reflecting the timing of the Lunar New Year.

Overall, the international load factor reached 82.5 per cent, a record level for the month.

Among the major regions, Asia-Pacific airlines recorded a 4.4 per cent year-on-year increase in demand, while capacity rose by 5.2 per cent, bringing the load factor to 85.9 per cent, down 0.7 percentage points compared with January 2025.

Meanwhile, European carriers reported a 6.3 per cent rise in demand, with capacity increasing by 5.7 per cent year-on-year. As a result, the load factor reached 79.4 per cent, up 0.5 percentage points.

In North America, demand increased by 3.4 per cent year-on-year, while capacity rose by 2.6 per cent, pushing the load factor to 82.3 per cent, up 0.6 percentage points.

Similarly, Middle Eastern carriers recorded a 7.2 per cent increase in demand, alongside a 7.8 per cent rise in capacity, with the load factor standing at 83.2 per cent, down 0.4 percentage points compared with January 2025.

Latin American airlines delivered one of the strongest performances globally, with demand rising by 11.4 per cent year-on-year, while capacity increased by 8.9 per cent. Consequently, the load factor reached 86.5 per cent, up 2.0 percentage points.

African airlines also recorded robust growth, with demand increasing by 11.7 per cent year-on-year, while capacity rose by 10.1 per cent. In this context, the load factor reached 77.4 per cent, up 1.1 percentage points compared with January 2025.