Gamers just want to chill out and farm — and it's sparking a surprise rally in Nintendo stock

• "Pokémon Pokopia," a life-simulation game that heavily features farming, has been a surprise hit for Nintendo.
• The company's stock has taken a hit as the global memory shortage has crunched Switch 2 margins.
• But "Pokémon" and the new "Super Mario" movie have analysts getting bullish again.

You've had a long day at work and you're looking to unwind. You drop a mint on DoorDash and settle into the couch for some video gaming. The intensity of a first-person shooter or racing game isn't your vibe right now. You want to relax, so you fire up "Pokémon Pokopia."

All around the world, people are going through this thought process. The desire to decompress is why so-called cozy games like the new "Pokémon" — similar to "Animal Crossing" and "Stardew Valley" before it — are so popular. Sometimes you just want to chill out and tend to your digital farm.

That mentality has created a surprise hit for Nintendo at a time when the company badly needs a boost. Released exclusively for the Switch 2 console last week, the game quickly sold out at several major US retailers. Demand was so high that Amazon even temporarily raised prices — something it rarely does.

Nintendo stock was rewarded with a 15% surge across two days this week.

The gain was also partially fueled by the release of the final trailer for the "Super Mario Galaxy Movie," due out on April 1. Buzz is strong heading into the sequel after the first installment made $1.4 billion globally.

But despite the recent wins, the chart below shows that Nintendo stock still has far to go to recover its 2025 peak. Shares are still down more than 30% from record highs last year.

Nintendo has fallen victim to the global memory-chip shortage, which has hiked prices for chips and squeezed margins on products that rely on them, like the Switch 2. The same issue has also become a hurdle for smartphone-makers like Apple and other consumer-electronics companies.

Stock analysts are starting to come around on Nintendo's comeback story following "Pokémon Pokopia's" runaway success. And in addition to moving a bunch of $70 game units, the company is expected to sell more of its $450 flagship console.

The "stealth hit" will "drive Nintendo Switch 2 adoption amid memory cost headwinds, which has been a big drag on the stock price," Jefferies analyst Atul Goyal wrote in a recent client note.

He has a buy rating on the stock, and a 12-month price target that calls for a 114% gain from Wednesday's close.

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Nathan Naidu points out that the "Super Mario Galaxy Movie" will primarily impact Nintendo's higher-margin software division, giving it even more upside.

Goyal says the movie is the "next major indicator of Nintendo's transmedia momentum."

My 7-year-old son and I will be ready. As card-carrying Switch 2 owners, it's our most-anticipated movie of the year. The question is whether there are enough enthusiasts like us out there to lift Nintendo shares back to former heights.