Annual OCS poll reveals quiet contractor confidence amid trade uncertainty
According to the Ontario Construction Secretariat’s (OCS) annual Contractor Survey, Ontario’s non-residential building contractors remain resilient in the face of a turbulent and uncertain marketplace.
Two-thirds of the contractors who participated in the OCS poll reported that they were running at or above capacity in 2025, and a similar number are expecting 2026 to be the same. This is despite data that indicates a near split on the outlook for Ontario’s construction market in the coming year.
A total of 35 per cent of contractors expect the overall market to be stable, while 14 per cent think it will grow. The number of contractors who are expecting a decline is 46 per cent.
The survey, which was released at the OCS’s 26th Annual State of the Industry & Outlook Conference in Toronto, also found that project cancellations and postponements are widespread with more than half, or 58 per cent of contractors reporting that one or more of their projects have been either delayed or cancelled.
Contractors cite escalating material costs, lack of financing, uncertainty from the trade war, and high interest rates as the primary drivers leading to project deferment.
Only a third of contractors experienced supply chain disruptions in the past year compared to 58 per cent in 2024.
“Ontario’s Industrial, Commercial and Institutional contractors continue to show remarkable strength and adaptability in a time that is dominated by uncertainty,” said Brian Barron, chief executive officer of the Ontario Construction Secretariat. “Economic and political uncertainty, the availability of skilled experienced labour and material costs remain major challenges, especially for smaller firms, but our industry’s ability to navigate supply chain disruptions and policy uncertainties, and to work collaboratively is a testament to the dedication and professionalism of the sector.”
Despite concerns about Ontario’s construction market, the survey revealed that contractors are “generally bullish” about their own firm’s outlook for 2026. Roughly a third of businesses expect growth, including 36 per cent in the Southwest, 32 per cent in Central Ontario, 34 per cent in the East, and 35 per cent in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). The outlook in the North is more cautious, where only 20 per cent of businesses are forecasting growth.
Labour market imbalances remain a significant concern in the sector, with one-in-five contractors noting it as their top challenge. Although down by half from previous years, ensuring contractors have access to a skilled and experienced workforce is a priority for the industry, especially as Baby Boomers retire. This is even more urgent in smaller markets such as Northern Ontario, where one or two large projects can have an impact on labour requirements.
To build a skilled workforce, contractors continue to invest in workforce development by hiring apprentices. Currently, 70 per cent of contractors employ apprentices; a steady increase from 58 per cent in 2024 and 64 per cent in 2025.
“With 82 per cent of unionized contractors employing apprentices, it is clear that our labour and management partners are committed to training the next generation of skilled tradespeople,” said Barron. “But there remains a cautious undertone. While we are making progress, there is a need for stability in the sector, project certainty and policy support that ensures apprenticeship pathways remain strong across Ontario.”