FIFA World Cup drama: What punishment does Iran risk if it withdraws from the 2026 tournament?
With less than three months remaining before the start of the 2026 World Cup, uncertainty has emerged around the participation of Iran. The tournament, set to be hosted by the United States, Mexico, and Canada, could face an unprecedented situation in modern soccer if Iran ultimately decides not to participate.
The debate intensified after remarks from Iran’s Sports Minister, Ahmad Donyamali, who questioned the feasibility of sending the national team to compete amid escalating geopolitical tensions. His comments have triggered discussions inside the world soccer governing body, FIFA, about what could happen next.
For now, the situation remains unresolved. However, the possibility that the Iranian national team might withdraw from the 2026 World Cup raises several questions: How would FIFA react, and what consequences might the federation face?
The potential withdrawal stems from escalating tensions between Iran and the United States following recent military developments in the region. The political situation dramatically changed after the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader during a series of attacks in late February.
According to the Iranian sports minister, the current environment makes it impossible for the national team to participate in the tournament. These remarks came only hours after Gianni Infantino said that the U.S. president, Donald Trump, had assured him that the Iranian team would be welcomed to compete in the tournament.
What FIFA regulations say about a withdrawal
If Iran officially withdraws, FIFA’s tournament regulations provide the governing body with broad authority to respond. Under Article 6 of the 2026 World Cup regulations, FIFA has the power to determine how to proceed if a participating federation withdraws. “If a participating federation withdraws or is excluded from the FIFA 26 World Cup, FIFA will decide at its sole discretion in this regard and will take whatever actions it deems necessary,” the regulation states.
The rules also clarify that the governing body may choose to replace the withdrawing team with another national association, although it is not strictly required to do so. Former FIFA regulatory director James Kitching explained that the governing body has wide flexibility in this scenario. “There’s no modern precedent for this and, according to FIFA’s own tournament regulations, they have full discretion to do whatever they want in the case of a team withdrawing,” Kitching told Reuters.
Possible penalties if Iran withdraws
Although the introduction of a withdrawal scenario might seem primarily sporting, the financial and regulatory consequences could also be significant. According to the World Cup regulations, a federation that withdraws from the tournament may face multiple sanctions:
- A financial fine of roughly 250,000 Swiss francs ($319,000)
- The obligation to repay preparation funds and participation grants already received from FIFA, totaling about $12 million
- Possible disciplinary measures, including exclusion from future competitions
In addition, the governing body could impose further sanctions depending on the circumstances of the withdrawal. However, some experts believe FIFA might show flexibility given the extraordinary geopolitical situation. As Kitching suggested, sanctions might not necessarily be applied if the withdrawal is clearly linked to the ongoing conflict.