Travel agencies warn spring break tourists about Mexico safety risks after recent surge of cartel violence

As spring break gets underway, travel agencies are issuing their own warnings about travel in Mexico following last month’s cartel attacks.

The State Department classifies Mexico at a Level 2 – "exercise increased caution" because of terrorism, crime and kidnapping threats.

"Many violent crimes take place in Mexico," the State Department’s warning issued last summer says. "They include homicide, kidnapping, carjacking, and robbery. There is a risk of terrorist violence, including terrorist attacks and other activity in Mexico."

The threats also vary from region to region, for instance, the State Department classifies several states in Mexico, including Jalisco and Baja California as Level 3 – "Reconsider travel" and states such as Sinaloa and Colima, where cartel violence is rampant, as Level 4 – "Do not travel."

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"Conditions vary significantly by state, and what’s happening in one region may look very different from what travelers are experiencing in a major resort corridor," AAA said in a recent article on travel to Mexico on its website. "Because of that, safety isn’t a one-size-fits-all answer; it’s a personal decision best made with up-to-date, destination-specific information."

The travel agency noted that "ongoing cartel conflicts in parts of Mexico led to temporary spikes in violence," recently, "prompting heightened US security alerts, including shelter-in-place notices in some popular resort regions."

"According to US Embassy alerts, these incidents are typically tied to localized security operations involving Mexican authorities and criminal groups," AAA added. "While most tourist visits to Mexico occur without incident, short-term flare-ups underscore why travelers should review current, destination-specific guidance before departure."

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Nemesio "El Mencho" Oseguera Cervantes, the leader of the Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generación, was killed in a Mexican military operation helped by U.S. intelligence on Feb. 22. 

His death led to widespread unrest in Jalisco — which is home to popular tourist destinations like Puerto Vallarta and Guadalajara — and other states, as the cartels conducted retaliatory attacks that lasted several days, but have left travelers feeling shaken.

During the unrest, the State Department issued a shelter-in-place advisory for Americans in Jalisco, some cruise lines skipped stops in Puerto Vallarta and Guadalajara and some U.S. airlines canceled flights, according to Town and Country.

Paul Tumpowsky, chief revenue officer for Fora Travel, said that cartels are incentivized to minimize their impact on tourism, because it’s a big part of the economy there.

"It’s a delicate balance to find their way at war with the police or whoever is coming after them," he said.

He added, "Mexico is a big place. That’s the first thing to remember. Baja California operates totally differently than Jalisco, relative to Mexico City, Cancun, Riviera Maya, etc. Generally speaking, outside of the regions that have been directly impacted, it’s going to be safe to travel."

He said that travelers should have a "heightened sense of awareness, not to the point of ruining your vacation, but being smart. This is a time to think about and plan a little bit more about what’s the appropriate amount of risk you’re willing to take."

Kent Webber, a senior manager at Global Rescue, a travel safety organization, told The New York Times "this marks a new phase in cartel reactions to high-level enforcement actions. No travel to Mexico is ever risk-free."

Mike Ballard, the director of intelligence at Global Guardian, a travel-risk management company, told The Times that he’d comfortably advise clients to travel to Cabo San Lucas, at the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, which was unaffected by the cartel violence in February, as long as they stay aware and monitor the news.

"But as we have seen, this can all go sideways quickly," he added, "so you want to be paying attention to what is going on before departing."