Nato: if not now, then when?

By Chrysovalantis Andreou

For the past week or so there has been a tense atmosphere both within Cypriot government circles and internationally regarding developments in the Middle East.

At the moment, Cyprus is hosting within its coastal waters a notable defensive presence from the major powers of the North Atlantic Alliance (Nato).

The United Kingdom, with frigates and helicopters, is reportedly protecting its sovereign British bases under a framework that, although complex, is legally established. France is present near Cyprus with the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle, Italy is here with the Federico Martinengo, Spain with the Cristoforo Colombo, and the Netherlands with HNLMS Evertsen. The Hellenic Republic is also participating by deploying the Belharra-class frigate Kimon and the frigate Psara, as well as two pairs of F-16 fighter aircraft. These forces represent some of the most advanced military assets not only in Europe but also in the world.

It is well known that the Republic of Cyprus is not a member of Nato. However, successive governments – apart from Akel – have generally supported, or at least leaned toward supporting, Cyprus’ accession to the alliance. The current government has openly expressed a positive stance toward such a possibility.

While all these actors are present and actively engaged around the same table, the Republic of Cyprus should – if it has not already done so – begin discussions with these powers regarding the process of joining Nato. It would certainly be a difficult diplomatic path, but likely easier than in previous circumstances, given today’s geopolitical environment.

These favourable conditions can broadly be summarised in two pillars.

First, Cyprus belongs to the West.

Second, Cyprus is a strategic pillar of security in the Eastern Mediterranean.

The first favourable condition is Cyprus’ clear alignment with the West. Since 2004, with its accession to the European Union, this orientation has been formally sealed. There is little doubt that Cyprus has significantly reduced its former dependence on countries of the old Soviet sphere. It does not maintain relations with authoritarian regimes around the world and develops relations with friendly Eastern states within the same framework followed by major European countries such as France and Germany.

The second – and possibly stronger – advantage for the Republic of Cyprus is its role as a strategic partner to powerful countries, both European and non-European, that maintain friendly relations with the United States and Nato itself. As a strategic location, Cyprus represents an important asset in the operational planning of major powers and of Nato as a whole.

The Republic of Cyprus welcomed all these forces partly because of diplomatic relations developed during the government of Nicos Anastasiades and Disy, and these relations have continued under the current administration. This alone strengthens Cyprus’ intentions and shifts the dynamics of any negotiations.

If Cyprus were to submit an application for Nato membership, it would almost certainly face an obstacle: Turkey’s veto – particularly noteworthy given that Turkey does not even recognise the Republic of Cyprus. However, with Turkey currently in a relatively disadvantageous geopolitical position, which may persist in the near future, there could be an opportunity for Western diplomatic pressure to push toward recognition and eventually approval of Cyprus’ accession to Nato.

Beyond all these considerations, there is another reason why Nato membership would benefit Cyprus. Since 1974, the island has existed in a tense and unresolved situation. While Turkey’s claims regarding legality, justice, or security are increasingly weakened, the Republic of Cyprus remains the only entity capable of guaranteeing stability.

The reason for mentioning this is the following: in any potential settlement of the Cyprus issue – including, unfortunately, a settlement that might not satisfy the Greek Cypriot community, such as a two-state solution or partition – Nato could serve as the ultimate guarantor of peace on the island.

This does not mean guarantees or intervention rights of the kind that Cypriots have struggled to abolish. However, if the Republic of Cyprus were a Nato member alongside Turkey and Greece, there would be no argument for the continued presence of occupation forces on the island. Consequently, one of the central issues of the Cyprus problem would effectively be resolved.

Clearly, such a step would require careful study and responsible strategic planning. Nevertheless, I firmly believe that it would be a move of strategic benefit not only for Cyprus itself but also for the security of the Eastern Mediterranean as a whole.

After all, since the founding of the Republic of Cyprus and the Treaty of Establishment, Nato-linked bases have existed on the island – indeed not just one, but two: the United Kingdom’s sovereign base areas. Given that Cyprus has occasionally endured political complications because of them, it would only be reasonable to derive some benefit from this reality as well.