Illinois' path to Sweet 16 is nice, but then? Trouble — real trouble

OK, then, let’s start with why this whole NCAA Tournament deal could work out very nicely for Illinois, the No. 3 seed in the South Region. In no particular order:

They can score — a lot — on any opponent. The body of work for a team that ranked No. 1 in the country in offensive efficiency (per KenPom) for much of the season is not to be taken lightly. They’d still be at the top, too, if only Purdue hadn’t shredded Michigan’s vaunted defense Sunday in a Big Ten tournament championship-game upset at the United Center. Coming in at No. 2 in efficiency by a jersey thread behind the Boilermakers is still awfully good.

They’re seventh in the country in rebounding differential. If the 24-8 Illini — the tallest team in college basketball — weren’t able to snatch it off the glass with the best of ’em, they’d have some serious explaining to do. Then again, this hasn’t been as much of a strength of late, and that has to turn back around immediately.

They have a major scorer in freshman guard Keaton Wagler, another freshman in 6-9 David Mirkovic who often appears to be their most gifted all-around player, all kinds of three-point shooting and did we mention the height thing?

They also have a nice-looking path to the Sweet 16. First up is No. 14 seed Penn on Thursday in Greenville, South Carolina. The Quakers (18-11) won the Ivy League tournament in wild fashion — with an 88-84 overtime upset of top-seeded Yale in which 6-9 forward TJ Power had 44 points, including six in the final seven seconds of regulation, and 14 boards — but they were only third in the Ivy in the regular-season standings. Next, on Saturday, could be No. 6 seed North Carolina, whose top scorer and rebounder, potential top-five NBA Caleb Wilson, broke a thumb less than two weeks ago and is out for the season.

Afraid of the third nerds from Penn? Or the broken Heels from UNC? Please.

There’s also the fact Illini coach Brad Underwood — who has predicted the Final Four for this team from the start — is still sounding off with the usual confident notes. You know, for what it’s worth.

“We’re really good,” he said after losing in overtime to Wisconsin in a one-and-done Big Ten tournament appearance. “We’re a possession away in a lot of games from being one of the best teams, record-wise, in the country. I still think we’re one of the best teams in the country.”

Which brings us to Houston, also one of the best teams in the country, except there’s no doubt about it when it comes to the second-seeded Cougars. It also brings us to my colleague Rob Miech, who predicted in the Sun-Times last week that Illinois will cut down the nets as national champs. I’m pretty sure Rob misspelled “Houston,” or perhaps “Arizona” or “Duke” or you get the picture. The Cougars, with their dynamite set of guards, are the blueprint of a potential Sweet 16 opponent that would give Illinois’ suspect defense fits. And nobody plays harder than coach Kelvin Samson’s Houston teams, a compliment that hasn’t been paid to Underwood’s last couple of teams.

Champs? The Illini? Sorry, not seeing it. Final Four? Sorry again. Sweet 16? Sure, but that might be more of a ceiling than it is a base camp for an even higher climb.

Three-dot dash

• BUT WAIT, PENN’s leading scorer is Ethan Roberts, from Arlington Heights (Hersey), who must be thrilled to get a crack at his home state’s flagship program. Even more excited might be first-year Quakers coach Fran McCaffery, who was fired by Iowa after last season, his 15th with the Illini rival. Oh, how some Illini fans must miss the ritual act of giving McCaffery grief.

“Congrats to Fran,” Underwood said. “Great, great friend.” …

• “PURDUE TO A 2” would’ve been a nice headline after the Boilermakers upset Michigan 80-72 for their fourth win in four days. But what I really want to know is if this suddenly red-hot team — having vaulted into the No. 2 seed in the West — has turned things all the way around after fading to seventh place in the Big Ten and become the team poll voters originally expected. In case you forgot, this was the No. 1-ranked team in the preseason Top 25. …

• ANOTHER QUESTION: Are we sure Midwest No. 1 seed Michigan is the Big Ten’s best shot at ending the conference’s quarter-century-long national title drought? The Wolverines have such a strong team, or else they couldn’t possibly have won a league-record 19 games in the regular season, but they clearly miss injured guard L.J. Cason, who gave them a real edge off the bench. And Purdue has point guard Braden Smith, who has never played better than he did in Chicago, setting a tournament record with 46 assists. For his career, he’s one assist behind Duke great Bobby Hurley for the all-time record.

“We’ve got to feel this pain right now,” Michigan’s center Aday Mara said. “We’ve got to use this for the next month.”

Or maybe Michigan State will go the furthest. Or Nebraska. Or, ahem, Illinois. Look, that’s why they play the games. …

• A BIG SALUTE to Akron coach John Groce, whose Zips earned the No. 12 seed in the Midwest and will square off with Texas Tech in the first round. Underwood’s successor didn’t get it done at Illinois, but he’s absolutely crushing it in his return to the MAC, where he notched his fourth conference tournament title in the last five years and has a dangerous team with 18 wins in its last 19 games.