Most Likely Upsets in March Madness 2026 Men’s Tournament

For many across the US, March marks one of the most entertaining times in sports, as the month kicks off March Madness in college basketball. Countless people make a habit every year to create their tournament brackets, hoping theirs will be the one that doesn’t become completely busted in their group of friends/family, and their bracket guesses the ultimate championship team. With that being said, predicting how the tournament plays out with 100% accuracy is often difficult, as Cinderella teams are real, extending their runs past expectations, and upsets are commonplace. 

Heading into March Madness 2026 on the men's side, there are a number of potential upsets that could happen. However, as I see it, I’ll be paying close attention to a few games where I think the top-seeded team could be in serious trouble. 

VCU and Texas Longhorns May Pull Off First Round Upsets

The North Carolina Tar Heels (No. 6) are heading into March Madness without their superstar freshman Caleb Wilson. The forward fractured his left hand in February and then broke his thumb in March, which requires a season-ending surgery, so he won’t be available for the tournament. That’s a blow to the team, considering ESPN reports he averaged 19.8 points and 9.4 rebounds per game. 

In the games since UNC lost Wilson, they’ve managed a record of 5-3 (including an early exit in the ACC tournament). So the team is more than capable of winning, but they’re facing off against the VCU Rams (No. 11). VCU has solid shooting behind the three-point line, and the team is riding lots of momentum right now. In their last 17 games, the school is 16-1. 

Elsewhere, the Texas Longhorns may have to play their way in to officially being a part of March Madness this year, but don’t count them out. It’s expected that the team will beat its First Four game opponent, NC State, positioning them to play the BYU Cougars (No. 6) in the first round. And while Texas struggled against more competitive teams throughout the season, the Longhorns have handed defeats to UGA and Texas A&M. 

BYU could be another top program that falls to Texas, especially without their point guard, Richie Sanders, who last played on February 14 due to an ACL injury. He was averaging 18 points, almost six rebounds, and two assists per game for BYU. Without him, the team is 4-9, so they could be quite vulnerable. 

Tennessee Could Upset UVA in Second Round

Provided Tennessee (No. 6) beats its TBD opponent in the first round, and UVA (No. 3) manages to do the same, they're set to meet in the second round. Having grown up in Virginia, knowledgeable of the history of men's college basketball in the commonwealth, it’s easy to believe UVA gets upset here. I still haven’t shaken off the 2018 first-round loss UVA experienced, and they were the number one seed at the time. 

Beyond history, what makes me a little nervous for UVA is the fact that Tennessee has proven they can win against a top team. Earlier this season, the squad handed losses to the University of Houston, Vanderbilt University, the University of Georgia, Texas A&M, Louisville, and Alabama.  So UVA is definitely going to have to earn a win against Tennessee.  

When Does March Madness 2026 Start? 

Now, these are just three upsets listed here; however, these are the ones that have me making adjustments to my initial bracket selections. March Madness kicks off with the First Four games on Tuesday, March 17, with the actual first round of the tournament beginning on March 19.