Duke Is March Madness' Biggest Favorite, But History Says That's Not Always a Good Thing
Duke enters the 2026 NCAA Tournament as the No. 1 overall seed and the odds-on favorite to win it all, with the Blue Devils sitting at +300 at most major sportsbooks. It goes without saying that the program is no stranger to these standings, but beyond the bracket, the history is a little more complex.
This bout with March Madness is the tenth time Duke has entered the tournament as the pre-tournament favorite, tying North Carolina for the most such appearances since 1979. The pre-tournament favorite has won eight of the last 20 tournaments, which is nothing to turn a nose up at, but that also technically means they've lost more than they've won, despite the impressive number of appearances and the odds being ever in their favor.
Duke's Basketball Record
Duke's tournament resume is undeniably elite. In 47 all-time appearances, the Blue Devils carry a 126-42 record, which is one of the best winning percentages in the history of the sport. They've reached the Final Four 18 times, third most all-time, and won five national championships, all under legendary coach Mike Krzyzewski (that's Coach K to Blue Devils fans) in 1991, 1992, 2001, 2010, and 2015. First-year head coach Jon Scheyer is still chasing his first title.
This year's squad arrives on an 11-game winning streak that includes an outright ACC regular season title and an ACC Tournament Championship, with National Player of the Year frontrunner Cameron Boozer leading the charge. Many analysts argue this version of Duke is more complete than last year's team, which made the Final Four before a historic late collapse against Houston.
There is one significant asterisk heading into the tournament. Starting center Patrick Ngongba and starting guard Caleb Foster both sat out the ACC Tournament with foot injuries. Duke won the conference tournament without them, but their availability for the NCAA Tournament remains uncertain — a potential vulnerability for a team otherwise built to go all the way.
Fellow No. 1 seeds Michigan (+360) and Arizona (+390) are close behind in the odds, with defending champion Florida at +750. No other team is shorter than +1000.
The road to Indianapolis runs through a lot of familiar territory for Duke, and whether it leads to a different destination than last year remains to be seen.