What experts say about the chances of Iranian missiles hitting London

Experts have said Israel’s warnings about Iranian missiles being able to hit the UK are ‘exaggerated’ as tensions continue to rise.

On Saturday, the Israeli Defence Forces said it was the first time Tehran had launched a long-range missile since the start of the war, and warned it is now capable of reaching cities like London, Paris or Berlin.

‘We have been saying it: The Iranian terrorist regime poses a global threat,’ the IDF said in a statement.

Diego Garcia is about 2,360 miles away from Iran and home to a base capable of accommodating long-range US bombers and navy ships.

The Israeli military claimed the missiles could reach a distance of about 4,000km, posing a danger to dozens of countries in Europe, Asia and Africa.

But Dr Bamo Nouri, Senior Lecturer in International Relations at the University of West London, told Metro that this suggestion from Israel should be treated with ‘caution’.

‘What the Diego Garcia strike demonstrates is not an imminent capability or intent to attack the UK mainland, but a calibrated extension of range tied to a specific military target—a joint US-UK base deeply embedded in ongoing operations against Iran,’ he said.

‘Israeli officials and some Western narratives are already amplifying the strike as evidence of a broader Iranian threat to Europe, which risks being used to justify drawing the UK and NATO more directly into combat roles rather than maintaining logistical or defensive support,’ he added.

Dr Nouri said the strike near Diego Garcia does raise questions about Iran previously saying its missiles can only travel 2,000 miles, but ‘capability should not be conflated with intent’.

He said: ‘The real danger here is not that Iran is about to strike London, but that competing strategic narratives around this event could escalate the conflict far beyond its current scope.’

Dr Katayoun Shahandeh, Lecturer and Senior Teaching Fellow at SOAS, University of London, said the strike near Diego Garcia is significant because it shows Iran’s capabilities and functions of strength.

‘It suggests that Tehran is prepared to demonstrate a reach well beyond its immediate region, which is why questions are now being asked about what that might mean for parts of Europe, including London,’ she said.

Dr Shahandeh pointed out that it is still not the same as proving an imminent or credible direct threat to the British capital

She added: ‘I do not believe Iran wants to take Europe on directly, because it is well aware that it cannot confront the entire world at once. That is why the position taken by a number of European governments is so important.

‘Several have gone out of their way to distance themselves from Trump’s war, stressing that they were not the ones who initiated this conflict and that their priority remains de-escalation, regional stability, and defensive protection rather than offensive participation.’

‘The more European governments emphasise defence, restraint, and diplomatic distance from the origins of this war, the less likely Iran may be to treat Europe as its next direct theatre. That does not remove the danger, but it does shape the logic of escalation.’

What has the UK said?

Today, Housing Secretary Steve Reed said the British military is ‘perfectly capable’ of protecting the country, but refused to reveal how close Tehran’s missiles came to reaching the joint US-UK base Diego Garcia.

‘We have the finest military in the world. We are perfectly capable of protecting this country,’ he told BBC’s Sunday With Laura Kuenssberg programme.

So far, the Government has not said exactly when the two intermediate-range ballistic missiles were fired at Diego Garcia in the Chagos Islands or how close they came to hitting their target.

Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper condemned Iran’s missile strikes on the joint US-UK base on Saturday while stressing that the UK will not be drawn into a wider conflict.

She said ministers support defensive action only and want to see a swift resolution to the war.

One of the missiles was shot down by a US warship while the other failed in flight, the Wall Street Journal reported.

Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch urged the Prime Minister to ‘come clean’ about the details of the latest attack on British troops and explain why the public was not informed.

‘Keir Starmer has dithered and delayed on the Iran conflict from the outset,’ she said.

‘Now we find out, from the media and not the Prime Minister, that the British base on Diego Garcia has been the target of Iranian missile attacks.’

Get in touch with our news team by emailing us at webnews@metro.co.uk.

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