Iowa Busted ChatGPT’s Boring Bracket Prediction for March Madness
The boring bracket ChatGPT produced for VegasInsider was looking depressingly strong — until it wasn’t.
Sunday night brought a couple of the 2026 NCAA Tournament’s biggest surprises, including Iowa’s stunning upset of defending national champion Florida.
Here’s what the bot got right and wrong with its picks in the first two rounds.
ChatGPT expected very few upsets
As we noted prior to the start of the tournament, VegasInsider used ChatGPT to create a bracket based on a bunch of strong datapoints such as offensive and defensive performance, conference strength, player production, coaching experience and recent tournament history
The result was hard to quibble with because artificial intelligence works on logic and most upsets aren’t logical.
While No. 12 seed High Point shocked No. 5 Wisconsin on Thursday afternoon, Friday and Saturday were very chalky (with No. 11 Texas topping No. 3 Gonzaga among the surprises).
Well, this is not an encouraging trend for Cinderellas. ...
— Stewart Mandel (@slmandel) March 21, 2026
The NCAA tournament went to 64 teams in 1985. Only 7 times have the 13-14-15 seeds all gone winless in the first round.
It's now happened two years in a row (for the first time).
Sunday got off to a boring start, too, with No. 2 seeds Purdue and Iowa State taking care of business, but things got more exciting in the evening.
First, No. 5 St. John’s topped No. 4 Kansas in thrilling fashion with a last-second layup. (ChatGPT actually picked the Red Storm in that one, but of course a 5 over a 4 is not exactly a major surprise.)
Then No. 6 Tennessee beat No. 3 Virginia, an upset AI did not predict, but that was nothing compared to what happened next.
Hawkeyes pull a stunner
No. 9 Iowa built and blew a double-digit lead over No. 1 seed Florida on Sunday but trailed 72-70 with 8.9 seconds remaining in the game.
The Gators were looking to move on to the Sweet 16 to continue defense of their 2025 national title, but the Hawkeyes had other plans as Alvaro Folgueiras hit a 3-pointer with 4.5 seconds remaining for a 73-72 Iowa lead.
ARE. YOU. JOKING.
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) March 23, 2026
IOWA LEADS. THIS IS MARCH. #MarchMadness pic.twitter.com/sNDHTqaGj1
Florida had a shot to win it, but the Gators could not get a shot off — and the ChatGPT bracket was dealt a major blow.
IT'S ALL OVER! THE CHAMPS GO DOWN ????
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) March 23, 2026
IOWA IS HEADED TO THE SWEET 16! ???? #MarchMadness pic.twitter.com/I7DldUMrjD
The bot’s other Final Four teams — No. 1 seeds Michigan, Duke and Arizona — are still alive, but it also had the Gators making the national championship game before losing to the Wolverines so that is a lot of points off the table in the average bracket challenge’s scoring system.
(Of note: Anyone can use ChatGPT to fill out a bracket, and to our knowledge there is no official ChatGPT bracket.)
What else ChatGPT got wrong
Like a 5 over a 4, a No. 9 seed beating a No. 8 is not exactly a huge development, but three of them did, and ChatGPT called all No. 9 Utah State over No. 8 Villanova, No. 9 Saint Louis over No. 8 Georgia and No. 9 Iowa over No. 8 Clemson.
The bot also expected No. 8 Ohio State to beat No. 9 TCU, but the Horned Frogs took that one.
In the second round, ChatGPT also had No. 5 Vanderbilt upsetting No. 4 Nebraska, but the Cornhuskers were winners in reality Sunday.